3:45pm Update: Wow, I nailed the low of the day with that last post.... *sigh* This is not how I wanted the day to end. Regardless, it's still a solid buy signal right now. As long as SPY closes below 140.82, the system covers shorts and goes long w/ a 100% TNA position. If we manage to blast north of 140.82, we'll continue holding shorts. Regards.
2:15pmET Update: Still on track for a buy signal. The more we sink today, the better!
As long as we don't see yet another intraday "buy the dip" session unfold, we are headed for a 100% TNA buy signal. The short position would be closed and a long position will be opened, both on the close EOD.
Interestingly since yesterday saw new nominal highs in the indices, the stop loss on the long position would be a relatively safe and tight TNA 59.06 (the swing low from 3/23). As a refresher, I use the 10-day rolling inside/outside reversal indicator to determine market health and find possible tops. Since a new high was set on 3/27, I sample the previous 10 candles to find the low end of the range. (As mentioned, that occurred Friday 3/23 for TNA. Officially I use SPY for market health, thus the SPY value to watch is 138.09 from 3/13.) If that range breaks to the downside, it would be our first red flag that a significant move down could be in the cards. Then again it could also just be a headfake, which is exactly why we only use a half stop - to reduce risk. More later.... thanks!