Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Buy if...

Two scenarios will produce a buy signal today.

1) If SPY closes between 139.66 to 140.25.

2) If SPY closes at 139.02 or lower.

Otherwise, it's another hold signal and the system remains short. If we get the buy signal, obviously the short position will be closed (for a not so trivial loss, unfortunately).

That's it for today...


  1. What about above 140.25?

    Also, do you think volatility will continue to go up? I have some VIX ETFs and wasn't sure about them.

    Thanks !!

  2. RMI, above that number, it's too overbought to buy. So it would be a hold.

    Too much contango for vix futures. If it's a buy, I would go long XIV.

  3. Just FYI...when I get a buy signal when we are this "overbought", we usually get a sell or short signal after just 1 or 2 days. So I don't anticipate this being an extended long signal. But I guess we'll see.

  4. Aw right!

    A rare easy one, JT, Schwab had 139.80 or above the last 5 minutes steady, making it easy to execute the classic J-Trader exit strategy, using ultrashort technical analysis right up to the 3:57/3:58 mark-- and then transacting no matter what.

    Today one could catch a reasonable proxy for the closing prices around 3:58. The early 'formal close price', per Schwab, was 139.91, at 4:05pm.

    System waltzed away from its short posture, and 'bought a dip', and is now long. Go bulls.

  5. btw, on my system here, the site's postings are following Eastern time and the comments are following Pacific time. Is this just my computer, or did this happen with the recent time change?

  6. So far so good.

    J, I won't be around much today. I know that it's very early, but do you have any insights into what the model might do (so I can prepare)?