3:45pm Update: Wow, I nailed the low of the day with that last post.... *sigh* This is not how I wanted the day to end. Regardless, it's still a solid buy signal right now. As long as SPY closes below 140.82, the system covers shorts and goes long w/ a 100% TNA position. If we manage to blast north of 140.82, we'll continue holding shorts. Regards.
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2:15pmET Update: Still on track for a buy signal. The more we sink today, the better!
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As long as we don't see yet another intraday "buy the dip" session unfold, we are headed for a 100% TNA buy signal. The short position would be closed and a long position will be opened, both on the close EOD.
Interestingly since yesterday saw new nominal highs in the indices, the stop loss on the long position would be a relatively safe and tight TNA 59.06 (the swing low from 3/23). As a refresher, I use the 10-day rolling inside/outside reversal indicator to determine market health and find possible tops. Since a new high was set on 3/27, I sample the previous 10 candles to find the low end of the range. (As mentioned, that occurred Friday 3/23 for TNA. Officially I use SPY for market health, thus the SPY value to watch is 138.09 from 3/13.) If that range breaks to the downside, it would be our first red flag that a significant move down could be in the cards. Then again it could also just be a headfake, which is exactly why we only use a half stop - to reduce risk. More later.... thanks!
Thanks, at another good call, going short when everyone was going long @ SPX 1418
ReplyDeleteThe odds of this happening are very low, but out of curiousity, what is the signal if SPY closes at 14.82?
ReplyDelete140.82 or higher was a hold. I didn't get precise with the wording as odds were too low it would even get that high. It was worded accurately in the tweet though. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteby tomo, the market health status will be based on 10days low of SPY at 138.55
ReplyDeleteWell, only if SPY can break above the high from 3/27 of 141.83, which is asking a lot.
DeleteUntil 141.83 is taken out, the "inside" range will remain static. And the health indicator will remain 138.09.
Your comment motivated me to dedicate a new post on the topic. Thanks.
Deletewow, ok, so maybe the market recovers this afternoon?
DeleteNot sure... could be a multi-day drawdown.
Deleteone of my premium show today is a down and tomorow is up day, monday will also be down.
ReplyDeleteyup, and with those signals, I know which one... ;)
Deletehahaha i might be start tracking like you, lol one of the tracker bound to be right hahah.
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