Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Buy signal confirmed.

The buy signal was confirmed (not a strong buy signal though). I took a 50% position in AH trading. I have posted the stop loss for the trade directly to the left. It lists the SPY "number to watch". With the weakness of the RUT lately, TNA is already below the low of 2/14 so it doesn't relate at all. So with this in mind, I will focus solely on SPY for the half stop. If it happens to break 134.25 to the downside, I will sell half my long position on the close that day.

A buy signal for TNA was also produced using my CCI rules.

Confidence is quite high that this will be a profitable trade. Could be tomorrow, could be 10 days from now, but it should close higher than the current value.

Good night.

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We need a poor finish today to generate a buy signal. If SPY closes 137.13 or lower, the system initiates a 50% long position in TNA. If we finish above 137.13 it will be a hold signal and we'll stay all cash. Let's hope it's not another nail-biter. It's currently 137.14... :)

3:45pm update: Bonus if SPY closes below 136.97, that's a strong buy signal.

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Feb signals


Date
Signal
TNA
Jan 30
Buy54.89
Feb 1
Hold
Feb 2
Sell59.13
Feb 3
Short63.13
Feb 6
Hold
Feb 7
Hold
Feb 8
Hold
Feb 9
Hold
Feb 10
Buy59.19
Feb 13
Hold
Feb 14
Hold
Feb 15Buy59.11
Feb 16
Short62.58
Feb 17
Hold
Feb 20
Closed

Feb 21
Cover61.22
Feb 22
Buy59.79
Feb 23
Sell62.43
Feb 24
Hold
Feb 27
Hold
Feb 28
Hold
Feb 29 Buy58.47




15 comments:

  1. Thanks, J.

    I assume that the 50% position is for accounting purposes. Will you initiate a 100% position if we get a buy signal?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I wimped out and took 50% position in AH trading. Got a good price though, better than the close.

      I would've gone 100% had we gotten the strong buy.

      Delete
  2. "Strong buy" have anything to do with your CCI signal?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Negative. At least not yet. It just means my unhealthy signal was also showing a buy. These have a very high winning percentage and very high profit factor. Looks like we just missed it, though...SPY popped to 137.02 at the last second.

      Delete
  3. It sure pays today to wait a bit today, TNA dropped 1$ after the close.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Man I need to change brokers... :(

      Oh, well. Maybe we make that up tomorrow

      Delete
  4. Something better change or that looks like a strong short to me. lol

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I subscribe to Cobra's reports (it's only 10 bucks a month). He says bearish engulfing candles at 10-day highs have finished higher 13 out of 13 times the next day the last 2000 trading days.

      I'm thinking we're in pretty good shape being long here. A big gap down tomorrow and I'll load up even more longs.

      Delete
  5. ya agreed. But I hope it's right, I've got a few longs and this market seems to never go down.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I dunno - I just finished running my charts and right now I'm seeing more downside than up for Thursday. I could be wrong. But I did trake out some DXD today.

    ReplyDelete
  7. J,

    What is your method for dumping the long/short position on the "sell" day. I know for records sake, you sell at the closing price. Have you any found advantages to selling with 1 minute remaining, after hours, etc?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No advantages that I have ever noticed. Usually I like to close positions at 355-357p and will open new ones at 358-59. Sometimes I get a better fill price than the system, sometimes I get worse. It's all a random crap shoot. Yesterday I got lucky and got a nice price as the selloff continued into AH. Rarely, do I ever trade AH. More often I will trade using limit orders on the open the following day if I couldn't make my trades prior to the close.

      Delete
  8. J Thanks for the posting and info.
    Great Feb and good start to March.

    Interested to see how your 100% strategy plays out.

    I also use the CCI indicator as one of my two main trading tools. So far it has been very reliable and profitable.

    ReplyDelete