Thursday, January 5, 2012

Hold signal.

A hold signal is confirmed unless SPY closes above 128.52 - which would generate a 2nd short signal and push the system 100% short TNA.

14 comments:

  1. Well, we hit 128.20 so maybe we might hit 128.52; you never know.

    :-)

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  2. I would say news can indirectly affect my system only through sentiment readings. I wouldn't say it could "mess up" my system. Rather the sentiment component is contrarian based in an attempt to avoid siding with the herd especially at extremes.

    Otherwise, my system is technically based, pattern based, and trend based. News, and to a lesser extent, fundamentals are disregarded.

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  3. Well said J trader. Does that answer your question Justin?

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  4. yeah, thanks. It was just rough seeing morning profits slip away.

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  5. 2 days in a row...

    oh well, I am long (small caps) and short (ETFs) and down an overall 2% with HUGE upside potential...

    I'm good...

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  6. It was definitely a downer to see the markets bounce so relentlessly today.

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  7. The entry right now is actually a bit better than it was Tuesday at the close.

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  8. Did you see the VIX yesterday? VIX down, market up.

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  9. Michele, unless I'm misunderstanding your comment, that logic would suggest the market will never go down again. Or at the very least, the market would not go down following a day in which the VIX went down.

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  10. Well I just meant that I've noticed that when the VIX goes down, often the market is up the next day.

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  11. I've done some studies on this subject. You are right, but youre more right if the Vix is down more than 5%. Ive made it more difficult in a healthy market to get a sell/short signal if vix is down more than 5%. However if vix is only down a little say 1-4% a reversal is much more likely the next day. This is all accounted for in my model.

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  12. Conversely in an unhealthy market, a big drop in the Vix is usually a great shorting op.

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  13. Trying to trade this a little different. This time I put a stop under the highs on TZA and ended up selling around 25.88.... I then had a buy stop slightly above where it was... and basically avoided the pain on the way down while being prepared to buy if it raises up again.... locking in profits and improving the entry once it finally does go up again.

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