Thursday, September 1, 2011

Hold confirmed.

3:48pm: Hold signal is confirmed.

2:53pm: The system is not interested in buying at these prices and will probably give us another hold signal. While the system will remain 100% cash, I will maintain my short position. The jobs report will likely be a big market mover tomorrow AM... I don't presume to know what will happen or how good or bad the report will be, but I'd say as far as the market goes, the path of least resistance is down.

15 comments:

  1. Are you expecting more down movement or just neutral choppiness?

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  2. Did you forget yesterday's post?!? ;) Nothing today has changed my expectation, in fact my its only been reinforced.

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  3. I will likely cover my short position soon after the open, then re-short at the close. This is another speculative play based Bespoke's NFPR intraday charts posted on Cobra's Market View.

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  4. J-Trader
    Thanks for the info about your short trade.

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  5. jim, my pleasure. I may even be a bit daring a make a small daytrade on the long side.

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  6. Put a limit buy order for some TNA at 42 but missed by a dime. Doubt it will come back to that price but I'll leave it in place through about noon. If it dips down to 42 after noon, we'd probably close lower at that point. I'm also not going to chase as it goes up, so it looks like I'll be sitting in cash all day until the close at which point I will look to take on some more short exposure. As for the system, there will probably be no buy signal today.

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  7. J

    Thanks for all your posts. I think you have a very good trading system figured out. It is especially good at exiting before some kind of big drop. It's a very difficult time to navigate right now.

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  8. TNA does not look to me to have bottomed yet. Indeed it fell out of its daily rising regression trend channel today, a bearish sign. I doubt you're going to see much upside between now and the end of the day.

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  9. Oldeee,
    Thanks! I appreciate your compliments, although I get the feeling you weren't here a month ago when the market was collapsing and the system and I were 100% long!

    Stops have been implemented since then, and hopefully they will limit that kind of damage from ever occurring again.

    Michele, spot on! Thanks! I avoided TNA like the plague Fri afternoon.

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  10. Sorry J, after re-reading my statement I should have said on a DAILY basis. Like everybody else, each has their own 'system' that works best in particular time frames. That monthly extended drop was quite devastating, but I do think your system does remarkably well. Thanks again.

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  11. Well thank you again! My system is designed to have no lag time. For instance, it doesn't rely on lagging indicators such as a MACD or MA crossover. It will attempt to pick exact tops and bottoms on a short term (swing trading) time frame. Enjoy your weekend!

    Btw, Michele and Chris... did you happen to see what TNA hit the other day?!? ;-)

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  12. Hmm? On Friday? It hit 45 on the button in pre-market. Then it hit a low of 40.18 just after 3 PM. Then it put in an odd little lump before falling back again.

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  13. I was thinking more on Tue-Thurs when it exceeded the big 5-0 as you had predicted.

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  14. Oh that :-) Well thanks, but I can't really take credit for that one. My prediction was for a week earlier.

    I will go out on another limb today though (as befits a Night Owl) and claim that TNA will see 38 and quite possibly 37 within the next two days. And at that level I'd be a buyer. If I traded TNA, which I don't.

    Happy Labor Day.

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