100% Short!

Despite the JTS flipping to healthy mode today, I am getting a healthy short signal. The CCI is also flipping to short. This places the JT Composite all-in short. Very surprising. I just exited my XIV position for a nice gain. With contango still in place, I will be using TZA rather than VXX. Due to the possibility of a huge move overnight due to election results, I'm starting with a relatively small short position with just 33% of my capital. I will add shorts in the morning if we gap up. Thanks and good luck to us!

JT Comp moves to 50% long XIV.

The CCI is flipping signs, moving from short to long (barely). Meanwhile, the JTS still refuses to make a move and remains in cash. This combo generates a 50% long XIV and 50% cash position for the JT Comp. I will reluctantly follow, but not with 50% of my capital. I will take a 1/3rd long XIV position into tomorrow. Something else to note: if SPY closes green again tomorrow, the JTS will flip back to healthy mode and could result in a buy signal as early as Wednesday. Thanks for reading!

Intraday Update: Cash

Just a quick heads up, I exited my TZA position and I'm back to cash. Will be back around the close with the system signals... Thanks, J

Weekend Post: Targets and Stats

I got excited Friday morning when I saw SPY was going to open right at it's 50 day MA. This combined with that fact that Employment days that gap up big usually finish lower was enough to convince me to purchase more TZA.  I purchased on the open at TZA 15 and turned the computer off for the next few hours as my wife and I left the house to run errands.  Obviously I was pleasantly surprised to come home and see what had transpired.

Even if you didn't add to your short position Fri morning, the JT Comp has you well in the black if you followed the signal Thursday. 

Cobra has posted an interesting stat on his subscriber site.  Out of respect to Cobra, I won't go into details, but I will tell you that there was a set-up that triggered Friday that lead to a higher close the following trading day 18 out of the past 18 times!   A dead cat bounce so to speak.   This may not exactly bode well for our short position.  If one were to get cute (which I probably will) they might exit the short position on any continued weakness Monday morning.  

If (or when) I exit the short position, I will look to re-enter TZA (hopefully at a better price) for the next dip which I expect will take us to the 200 day at 1380.  That is the plan.  I am guessing any bounce Monday will be shorted by the JTS.  We'll see.  Here's an update of the chart I posted 10/20.

Stats have been posted through Friday Nov 2nd.  All systems made between 5-7% in October and all but the JTS are off to a great start this month.  

That's it, thanks for reading and enjoy the rest of the weekend. See you Monday.
J

Holding shorts.

The JTS will remain cash but the CCI is staying short. The jt comp is 50% short over the weekend. I am now 75% as I purchased some more tza on the open. I did this simply because the SPX hit my predetermined target...1434. Thanks and have a great weekend!

CCI Short. JT Comp 50% short.

JTS is close to a short signal, but not quite.  It will remain cash.  CCI however will flip from long to short today.  This places the JT Comp 50% short TNA. 

As many of you know, CCI rules can be used on any stock or ETF.  It's comforting to see a solid buy signal today on TZA.

I'm moving to a 50% long TZA position while selling my XIV for a nice profit.  My cautious 25% position turned out to be the wrong move.  Remind me in the future when I'm feeling cautious to ignore my feelings. ;) 

If you followed the XIV trade, congrats!!!!  And good luck on the new short trade.  See you tomorrow.

Holding.

After waiting 4 days, there is nothing new to report with my systems. They are all producing hold signals.  Hope all is going well with you post-Sandy.

I was considering an AAPL purchase, due to a few reasons, mainly b/c it was bouncing off its 200 day.  I don't have much time to post stats, but after having been above the 200 all year, the first test is statistically bullish.  I'm counting on a 5-10% move to the upside in the next few weeks, but I'm not ready to buy any today.

I remain 25% long XIV.  See you tomorrow. Thanks!

Oct Signals

Date	JT Composite	TNA	J-Trader	CCI
Sep 25		62.29		Long
Sep 28	Cash	62.95	Short
Oct 1	Cash	62.15	Cover	Sell
Oct 2	Half-Long	62.31	Long	Hold
Oct 3	Cash	61.93	Hold	Short
Oct 4	Cash		Hold	Short
Oct 5	Cash		Hold	Hold
Oct 8	Cash		Hold	Hold
Oct 9	Long	59.61	Long	Long
Oct 10	Long		Hold	Hold
Oct 11	Long		Hold	Hold
Oct 12	Half-Long	58.46	Hold	Sell
Oct 15	Cash	59.70	Sell	Hold
Oct 16	Half-Short	61.05	Hold	Short
Oct 17	Short	62.67	Short	Short
Oct 18	Short		Hold	Hold
Oct 19	Cash	57.87	Hold	Long
Oct 22	Cash		Hold	Hold
Oct 23	Cash		Hold	Hold
Oct 24	Half-Long	56.55	Cover	Long
Oct 25	Half-Long		Hold	Hold
Oct 26	Half-Long		Hold	Hold
Oct 29	Half-Long	Closed	Hold	Hold
Oct 30	Half-Long	Closed	Hold	Hold
Oct 31	Half-Long		Hold	Hold