Hold confirmed.

Nothing new today. All systems are holding the short position. Thx.

Holding shorts.

All systems will remain short. CCI is giving another short signal. JTS is officially just a hold. I'll be adding to my TZA position. Thanks.

Weekend thoughts...

On Friday I commented that my recent run of good fortune probably won't last. 14 winning trades in a row, and 18 winners of the past 19. I'm not saying this to boast. I'm actually in a precautionary mode, trying to lower my (and to some extent your) expectations. All good things come to an end, as the cliche goes. I should probably just stop trading the rest of the year, but what fun is that?!! :)

An admirable suggestion was made that I track the recent performance of each system and bias my trading decisions toward the better performer. I've tossed this idea around in my head the past few days and have decided not to do that at this time. The main reason for that is the JT Composite system. The purpose of the JT Composite is to hedge bets and reduce risks. When you start pitting the JTS up against the CCI trying to find which one may perform better in the future, you're right back at square 1. There is no guarantee that recent performance has any bearing on the future.

I will offer more support for strictly following the JT Composite. The chart below represents the daily balance of my actual trading account. (It doesn't go back to Jan 1, 2012 because I'm not using my trading computer right now and don't have the numbers.) The % gain/loss does go back to Jan 1. I did not have the best January so the chart starts below 0%. I've marked where the CCI and JT Comp systems went live. Until the JT Comp system came online, every good stretch was followed by an equally depressing drawdown. As soon as I recovered all my money for the year, I went right back down. Now, I'm not saying the JT Composite system is perfect, but results so far have been outstanding.












The biggest reason for the increased returns has probably been a mean reversion environment vs a persistent trend. It will be interesting to see how my systems (and specifically the JT Comp.) perform when stocks move in just 1 direction. That has to happen sooner or later. For now, I'll enjoy what appears to be a 3rd wave up in my account. (Shout out to all the EW'ers!!) lol

Final thoughts: I went heavily short Friday so I'm back in the bear camp. It's odd flipping back and forth so quickly. It can really screw up your thinking. Just days ago, I wanted desperately for the market to rally.... Now I have to purge all those thoughts. Anyway, have a good remainder of the weekend. I'll be pulling for Tyson Gay tonight to take down The Bolt. Cheers!

Short!

CCI is definitely going short, no doubt about that. Still a small chance the JTS won't give a short signal. If SPY closes 138.94 or lower, JTS will only give a SELL signal (no short). If this unlikely scenario unfolds, the JT Comp will only go 50% short/50% cash. But if we close 138.95 or higher, JTS will go short as well, sending the Comp back into a 100% short position. Those are the only 2 options. Have a good weekend! It's my intention to post something interesting tomorrow or Sunday so heads up for that. Take it easy!

100% long.

JT Composite will move to a 100% long TNA position on the close. This is a result of the CCI flipping from short to long today. The JTS remains long. I will take a healthy position in TNA - though not 100%. If CCI turns out to be a day early, which I don't think it will this time, I will buy more TNA tomorrow. However, again, I don't think tomorrow will be a down day. Happy trading!

Holding cash.

All systems are producing hold signals today, keeping my Composite system parked in cash. That's quite alright with me. I don't have a single clue what's going to happen tomorrow. See ya then.

Composite sidelined.

Both models will hold their respective (opposite) positions keeping the Composite system sidelined in cash. Thanks!



July Trades

Date	JT Composite	TNA	J-Trader	CCI
Jun 29	Half-Short	49.53	Hold	Short
Jul 2	Half-Short		Hold	Hold
Jul 3	Short	57.91	Short	Hold
Jul 4	Closed
Jul 5	Short		Hold	Hold
Jul 6	Cash	55.81	Hold	Long
Jul 9	Cash		Hold	Hold
Jul 10	Half-Long	53.33	Cover	Hold
Jul 11	Half-Long		Hold	Hold
Jul 12	Half-Long		Hold	Hold
Jul 13	Cash	54.08	Hold	Sell
Jul 16	Cash		Hold	Hold
Jul 17	Half-Short	54.03	Hold	Short
Jul 18	Short	55.00	Short	Short
Jul 19	Short		Hold	Hold
Jul 20	Cash	52.55	Long	Hold
Jul 23	Long	49.87	Hold	Long
Jul 24	Long		Hold	Hold
Jul 25	Long		Hold	Hold
Jul 26	Cash	49.37	Hold	Short
Jul 27	Short	53.06	Short	Short
Jul 30	Cash	52.40	Long	Hold
Jul 31	Cash		Hold	Hold