Wednesday, August 31, 2011

My game plan... (Plus Aug Trades)

3:52pm: Hold confirmed.

3:30pm: Looking like a hold signal for today. It's also another VIX down/VXX up day which always makes me leery of long positions.

12:51 pm: I bought more TZA minutes after the open. I'm up to 50% short now averaged in @ 39.58. Here is my speculative game plan, and why I'm shorting here... It could be totally wrong, but it looks good to me! Feel free to comment and/or criticize. :)





Archiving Aug Trades Below....


Date
Signal
TNA
Jul 18
Buy
78.90
Aug 1
Hold
Aug 2
Hold
Aug 3Hold
Aug 4
Hold
Aug 5
Hold
Aug 8
Hold
Aug 9
Hold
Aug 10
Hold
Aug 11
Sell44.15
Aug 12
Hold
Aug 15
Short48.84
Aug 16
Hold
Aug 17
Hold - 1/2 stopped46.20
Aug 18
Buy38.17
Aug 19
Hold
Aug 22
Hold
Aug 23
Hold
Aug 24
Sell42.79
Aug 25
Buy39.78
Aug 26
Hold
Aug 29
Hold
Aug 30 Sell49.25
Aug 31 Hold


13 comments:

  1. Interesting speculation and it is a very reasoned thought; however, how can you explain today's strength in the market and what is out there to deny the chance that it won't break above the rising channel?

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  2. Thanks for putting out a position to discuss.
    Historically the end and start of the month are favorable for the market. Would seem the market is inclined to go up over the next several days before making a reversal in the trend as you indicate.

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  3. Major damage was done early this month. The market can't just ignore that then go on and simply & easily recover. It will take time. During that time, volatility should remain high and lows will be tested. I am predicting 1100 SPX will not hold.

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  4. Congrats on being positive YTD again! If only they had you at LTCM, maybe you could've turned them around LOL.

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  5. Some crazy weird session. I honestly didn't think we were going to see any upside today at all. Given that tomorrow is the 1st of the month, I make have to rethink my bearish outlook.

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  6. D, thanks! And lol @ LTCM. I'm just an amateur. If I was running LTCM, they would've failed way sooner! :)

    Michele, I'm with ya regarding today. I felt like the gap up was a gift just begging to be sold. As for tomorrow, I'm mixed. I suppose it could be up, but there is too much downside risk right now. My system is not offering up a buy signal, so I will probably just keep the shorts going.

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  7. I wonder if the ISM number was messed with as most folks thought it would be below 50.... hmmm
    Anyway, another day up... Is 36 still a viable stop on TZA since that would be a 10% loss?

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  8. Ya ever see someone trying to sneeze? They go "Ah... ahh..." and you keep waiting for the "choo" but it just doesn't happen? That's what this market is like right now. C'mon, Mr. Market, I haven't got all day!

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  9. I'm encouraged that the post ISM strength has been reversed. However, I too am waiting anxiously for the sneeze. (nice anology, btw) I am pulling for the bears but they r failing to deliver. I think they are waiting to strike until tomorrow.

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  10. Well this is more like it...

    Now as long as those pesky bulls don't buy the dip yet again, my day will be complete. :)

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  11. My guess is they won't. Looks like the "choo" just blew :-)

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  12. "Now as long as those pesky bulls don't buy the dip yet again, my day will be complete. :)"

    Looks like some buying is going on...

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  13. Well what time frame are you interested in? Over the last hour today, it's not out of the question to get some upward motion, but on a daily basis it looks like we're (finally) headed lower.

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