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As much as I would love for that to happen given my underwater longs, a repeat is a long shot.Over that weekend, we were experiencing the sovereign debt crisis and a trillion dollar eurozone bailout was announced (the EFSF). The bailout was their best attempt at a fix and it has failed.While I still expect a bounce soon, I'm just trying to be realistic; "hope" is not a trading strategy. On the other hand, if German taxpayers decide to bailout the rest of Europe, then we should get an enormous bounce. I'd be very surprised if that decision was made this weekend though.
Position trader here so I'm all in cash after getting trailing stopped out a week ago. I almost got my first buy signal today and I'm still extremely bullish in the intermediate timeframe. This whole move down has been extremely suspect as there was no real news for this kind of parabolic move down. It's as if everyone went on Zerohedge and said fuck it.I honestly believe the selling was the S&P downgrade being priced in. It's only logical that those in the know knew about the downgrade ahead of time. They tipped their hand when they sold into the gap up today and when DC passed the debt ceiling. Of course, it's all just idle speculation. I hope you and your followers have better success next week!
J-Trader, I've been following the posts, and I was very impressed with the profits of the system on previous months. However, in the interest not in criticism but improvement-- obviously it needs to be 'tweaked' a little to either exit after a certain amount of loss or reverse (as in, switch into TZA.) Even if the system ends up being right and TNA rips up +$30 magically on Monday, it's still wrong about this move. Maybe after buying 100% TNA and there's a 5% loss, hedging at least half the position with TZA and a 2% stop loss until either the market goes up (you get stopped out of TZA but make more back on TNA) or the market goes down and at least you're partially hedged against a 25% loss.
J-Trader, Looking at yesterday's DIA, SPY and IWM there was mixed results (+0.47%, -0.15%, -1.75%). IWM was way down. TNA (our trading instrument) is 3X the IWM. From what I understand, you use the S&P 500 (SPY) to make your trade calls but trade TNA. Just wondered what the recent results and trade signals would have been if you were to use IWM instead of SPY.
In the past, I've tested getting stopped out of a long position when the market flips from healthy to unhealthy. Or, also, when in a short position and it flips from unhealthy back to healthy. Results were mixed. Many times, the system would get stopped out near a bottom. Now after what just happened, I might just reconsider my "no stops" strategy. We would've been stopped out at 72.71 on 7/29, which would've been a moderate loss from my long entry, but it obviously would've saved us in this case. I'm conflicted. I'll have to do more testing.
Right, I'm not sure it's just that the system has trouble with news-related stuff, but profitable traders need to have good money management. That means, something like at least selling half of your position when you've got significant profits, and lightening up in the face of even moderate losses. I remember hearing a trader say: I limit my trades to A: Big winners, B: Little Winners, C: Flat trades, and D: Little/moderate losses. Your best trades should never be less than your worst. I'm not trying to say I'm especially good at this whole thing-- I did well Friday, but I'm holding my share of long term stinkers that I BELIEVE will be up in a month, but wish I dumped a 2 weeks ago anyway.Usually that means only adding to already winning trades, and raising stops above entry prices (once it's gone in your favor.)
Someone better announce something soon. Monday may be bad... S&P futures opened at 1160 (3.5% down).
Been watching the ES trade this evening. Normally Sunday is pretty sleepy. Tonight it's been popping like a Saturday night in Vegas.Interesting that we fell right to the 1170 support level someone else was talking about here last week. Tomorrow's not looking good.
Hate to spoil the fun. but if you look at the E-mini 500 futures Monday morning at around 2, a large rally occurred due to the G-20/ECB buying up alot of Italian and Spanish bonds. Well it rallied then plummeted again. Billions were pumped and they did nothing. There will be little to no upside here people, clear indicator just from my illustration just now. We might take a breathier around here but were not going alot higher, only lower. Take the loss TNA while were resting.
Disturbing news Chris, now what???Dang !!
RMI, stick to IT and J-trader signal, they are concurring with each other. if they are off then thats when you got to decide.
Looks like we are in the point of a descending triangle that started Friday afternoon. The double bottom this morning sent us back up to the top of the trend line. Now we are hovering toward the middle. The $ is strong this morning with what is going on in Europe. As Chris said we are at a hesitation point. Not sure how long it is going to last.
Now with the downgrade of the Fannies, the dow dropped 300 again...So, with TNA at $46, that is a 42% drop and will be tough to make up.I hope someone has a plan law87...
hahaha well, "make us or break us", just walk away from your desk and try not to think about it before you know it we be back to 60
Yeah, sometimes that actually is a plan. I didn't even bother to start up my trading platform this morning.One thing's for sure, this is an exponential move, not just parbolic but hyperbolic of massive proportions. I scrolled way back in my charts looking for something similar. I had to go all the way back to 9/11 (the original one) to find something at all like this.One thing's for sure - unless the laws of physics have been repealed, this kind of move can't go on much longer. The market was already the front page headline on last Friday's local paper. That's always a good sign that a bottom is near.
TNA hits $43.00YEAH !!
An we break another key level on the Industrial. Sure you still want to hold.
WOOHOOTNA Hits $42.00Only a few bucks from a 50% loss!!
There goes $41.00This is SICK
And now we are down to $39.46AND A 50% LOSS.Gotta love it.
Yeah, well you can thank O'Bummer for that. His yakkedy-yak Speech of Nothing just now was good for another 20% drop in the Dow.
So, now what is going to happen this afternoon when the big money starts... selling? buying?
We're on a roller coaster that only goes 1 direction.
There may be some clues in the VIX. I just wrote a short post on this in my blog. May be a bounce tomorrow.