Friday, August 26, 2011

Possible Sell Signal

3:37 pm: Sell longs if SPY closes at 117.31 or lower. Otherwise, hold 50% long position over the weekend. Right now it looks like we'll be holding as SPY has regained some legs - up to 117.60. Things could change of course...

7:11 am EDT: Yesterday was my "this is your brain on drugs" day. Not only did I screw up the SPY number, I also forgot to send a tweet. Who knew that a Benadryl & Sudafed (the real stuff, not that phenylephrine crap) concoction could alter my already fragile mental state of being that much?! :)

Anyway, we're back on track today with a partial TNA position. Although if you're on the sidelines waiting out the whole Jackson Hole drama, I can see the benefit in that. Taking a 3 day weekend here in cash sounds quite relaxing.

While we are supposedly in "healthy" market mode, I wanted to update you on where my unhealthy signals have been the past week or so and what it's saying now. I still find it hard to believe we are healthy as we've seen a 50 pt drop (last Thurs) and a ~20 pt drop (yesterday), and these things aren't supposed to happen when we're healthy.

What is interesting is that both sides have been doing well lately. And, yesterday's unhealthy signal was to cover the short position initiated on 8/23 at TNA 41.00. So both signals are pointing to some possible upside. But again, I will not take a substantial long position until we get an unhealthy buy signal. We got one back on 8/19 which would've resulted in a handsome profit. I'll be ready if it happens again. And I'll be sure to update the page with unhealthy signals (also) going forward for those of you who are like me -- skeptical we are healthy.


  1. TNA up 6%. The system continues to successfully chip away at this month's loss.

  2. Nice call, JT, and I like your commentary. Have a great weekend.

  3. Looking good this morning. Wondering if our signal today will be a hold or a sell/short...

    An early warning estimate would be awesome :D

  4. Probably going to be a hold signal. But we are relatively close. I'll keep ya updated.