9pm: The official signal today was a "hold". The system has taken no position yet this month. Despite the hold signal, I added to my short position, doubling it in fact with another purchase of TZA at 14.30. I'm now averaged in at 14.35 and my position is not so small anymore. If the first half of the week doesn't provide a small pullback, I may be stuck holding it until the 2nd half of February, when seasonality suggests the market may not perform so well.
80% of the time when $SPY closed at a 52wk high on Payroll Report day, it had a lower close within 3 days.$$
Granted, anyone short is fighting the fed and their POMO right now, but almost all the data I'm looking at suggests a pullback (at least a small one) will occur sometime this month. If it materializes, I'll be ready.
1:30pm: With the recent spike upward to near new highs, I am getting a sell signal. Not to be confused with a short signal, as there is too much risk for shorts. Obviously the system has no long position, so it's the same as a hold. But if someone was considering lightening up on their long position, today may be the day to do it. Sometimes NFP days have the tendency to be a turning points.
Ok, so much for that big move I was blabbing about yesterday. I should know better by now than to make that type of comment. Anyway, as for the system, it's close to a buy signal, but it is dependent on the VIX, and right now the VIX is saying... "no buy".
So unless something happens, another hold signal will be produced (no chance of a short signal, btw) and a buy signal will have to wait until next week.
As for my short position, I'm still holding out for TZA = 15. :)
I will update later if anything interesting happens this afternoon.