Short confirmed. (+ Nov Trades)

My system moves to a 100% short position. You need some serious guts to go 100% 3x leveraged short in this free money environment so caution is warranted. There is a partial safety net, however. Tomorrow, if SPY closes green, it will flip the system back to healthy mode and thus stop out half the short position.

My system was built to catch these whipsaws, but these past few trades have definitely gone awry. I can't remember having 3 losing trades in a row, so the system is due to have a winner after these last 2 losers. I suppose this short signal is not over yet, though.

I'm going heavily short on the close. Best of luck to all. Take it easy!
Archiving November Trades...

Date	Signal	TNA
Nov 1	Cover	42.77
Nov 2	Hold
Nov 3	Hold
Nov 4	Hold
Nov 7	Hold
Nov 8	Short	50.02
Nov 9	Buy	42.91
Nov 10	Hold
Nov 11	Sell	47.16
Nov 14	Buy	45.16
Nov 15	Sell	46.90
Nov 16	Buy	44.61
Nov 17	Hold
Nov 18	Hold
Nov 21	Hold - 1/2 Stopped	39.58
Nov 22	Hold
Nov 23	Hold
Nov 24	Closed
Nov 25	Hold
Nov 28	Short	38.39
Nov 29	Hold
Nov 30	Short	44.84

Hold confirmed.

No new signal today. System remains half short, half cash. Good evening!

Sell/short confirmed.

Assuming today's SPY range does not break to the upside, I can predict the signal.

If SPY closes above 119.60: Sell longs and go 50% short.

If SPY closes between 119.21 - 119.60: Sell longs.

If SPY closes below 119.21: Hold longs.

Again, these numbers are only valid if SPY does not exceed 120.18. If it does, I'll have to update. Thanks!

Hold

First off, apologies for the late update. With the beautiful weather, the kids and I were out hanging Christmas lights. I totally forgot the market was closing early today. Oops.

Anyway, I just fired up the laptop and see we had yet another hold signal. Very close to a buy signal, but not quite. I don't know if this means more downside Monday or not, but I would say probably.

If you read my comments section, you'll notice I bought some longs on the open. As I turned off the computer, we were up nicely so I was feeling pretty good at the time. Not so much anymore.

We will bounce eventually, that is a near certainty. And when it comes it could be HUGE. The problem of course is that we could continue to sink for who knows how long... I'm up to about 50% long TNA now with today's purchase. If we gap down huge on Monday, I will add more longs. Otherwise, I'm content with the position and will let it ride for a few days.

Have a refreshing weekend!

Hold confirmed.

We were very close to a buy signal, but not going to make it. That said, we were close enough that I'd be very surprised if we didn't get a sizable bounce the next few days.

Anyway, time to forget about the market for a while and enjoy family, friends, and all that we have. I'll see ya back here Friday. Happy Thanksgiving!

Hold confirmed.

The system remains 25% long. The VIX being down along with the market is somewhat concerning, although some will say it's bullish. I see it as complacency.

Unhealthy Mode & 1/2 Stop

3:52pm: On the close, we'll sell half the long position, keep the other half. This places the system in approx. 75% cash.

11:42am: The system is now in unhealthy mode starting today. Additionally, since we took out SPY 119.12, the system will move to 25% TNA and 75% cash on the close. Keep in mind, the last time the system was stopped out of a long position it was a great time to buy. This is precisely why we'll keep a partial long position going until the next signal. Then again, this could be early August all over again...

Lower prices are expected and my system will sell/short any strength over the coming days. I see today as a significant shakeout before higher prices later this week surrounding the holiday. Thus, I'm expecting to hold onto this long position then go short heading into next week.

We'll see how it goes... Thanks for reading!

8:06am: Judging by the futures this morning (/es -20), I have to mention the possibility that the stop loss could get taken out. The level to watch is SPY 119.12. If we dip below that value at anytime today or this week, the system will flip to unhealthy mode. This forces the system to exit half of the long position (ie. move to 25% TNA, 75% cash) on the closing price on day in which the stop loss level is violated. Today, perhaps?