4 pm: The system produced a hold signal and will remain on the sidelines.
Earlier post...
Well, I didn't have a chance to make a post this past weekend... I was going to post some stats on how a big spike in the VIX lead to strength in the following sessions. I didn't expect it this soon, however.
Monday, January 31, 2011
Friday, January 28, 2011
Hold
11pm: I'm expecting a buy signal to come on Monday or Tuesday. I'll explain with a post this weekend. In a nutshell, there is a very profitable scenario shaping up on the long side.
4pm: My system generated a "hold" signal and will remain out of the market until the next buy or short signal.
Earlier post:
Glad to have side-stepped the big loss today, but wish the system wouldn't have missed the short signal. Oh well...
I'm getting a buy signal today, but only if SPY closes above the 18 day SMA. That will be the key level to watch today, which is 128.34. If the market closes below the 18 SMA, we will get a "hold" signal and will remain in 100% cash.
4pm: My system generated a "hold" signal and will remain out of the market until the next buy or short signal.
Earlier post:
Glad to have side-stepped the big loss today, but wish the system wouldn't have missed the short signal. Oh well...
I'm getting a buy signal today, but only if SPY closes above the 18 day SMA. That will be the key level to watch today, which is 128.34. If the market closes below the 18 SMA, we will get a "hold" signal and will remain in 100% cash.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Sell signal #2
4pm: System produced another sell signal and remains in cash.
1:55 update: The buy signal looks to be history, and now I'm on alert for a potential short signal. Will update later.
Earlier post:
Some things to watch... Weakness that takes the S&P below 1296 could result in a buy signal. If there is too much weakness, however (say below 1292) no signal will be generated. Anything higher than 1296 and we get a hold signal. I will update near the close.
1:55 update: The buy signal looks to be history, and now I'm on alert for a potential short signal. Will update later.
Earlier post:
Some things to watch... Weakness that takes the S&P below 1296 could result in a buy signal. If there is too much weakness, however (say below 1292) no signal will be generated. Anything higher than 1296 and we get a hold signal. I will update near the close.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Sell confirmed
Pre-close update: The long trade has been closed. No new short position will be opened.
Earlier post: The system is generating a sell signal (although not a short signal). The long position will be closed today if the signal persists. In fact, with today being an FOMC day, statisitics show it is better to sell around 3pm, as there is usually weakness in the last hour. If the sell signal holds into 3pm, I'll close at that time rather than the usual 4pm.
There will be no short position initiated. There is too much strength to go short, but too much risk to remain long. After today, the system will remain out of the market until the next long or short signal, assuming of course the sell signal holds into 3pm.
Earlier post: The system is generating a sell signal (although not a short signal). The long position will be closed today if the signal persists. In fact, with today being an FOMC day, statisitics show it is better to sell around 3pm, as there is usually weakness in the last hour. If the sell signal holds into 3pm, I'll close at that time rather than the usual 4pm.
There will be no short position initiated. There is too much strength to go short, but too much risk to remain long. After today, the system will remain out of the market until the next long or short signal, assuming of course the sell signal holds into 3pm.
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Buy signal - confirmed
4pm: 2nd buy signal is confirmed. Long position is increased.
10:44am ET: The system is giving a 2nd buy signal, in which case the long position will be doubled.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Hold
I'm getting another hold signal for today. It's a weak hold (almost a sell) but still valid as far as the system goes.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Hold.
Ok, I step away for a few hours and the VIX explodes. That's interesting. It went from being down 8% when I left to closing up over 2%. Additionally, SPX was also up, which means there is higher probability for more downside on Monday.
Small caps performance this week was abysmal. Looking back the past several years, when TNA performed this poorly relative to BGU for the week, it was usually a great time to buy TNA. Hopefully that holds true going into next week.
Time will tell. Have a good weekend all.
Small caps performance this week was abysmal. Looking back the past several years, when TNA performed this poorly relative to BGU for the week, it was usually a great time to buy TNA. Hopefully that holds true going into next week.
Time will tell. Have a good weekend all.
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