Current market status: Unhealthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Last Trade: Buy/Long (11/09 & 11/12)
Commentary
Not much to add today. We formed an inside bar, which is generally considered bullish when in a downtrend. Will be waiting patiently for a sell signal so I can dump my small long position and try to make some money on the short side.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Unhealthy...
Current market status: Unhealthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Last Trade: Buy/Long (11/09 & 11/12)
Commentary
The market experienced a large enough drop today to flip the main status of my model. However, after such a large run up the past few months, I don't expect the bulls to go down with out a fight, therefore I expect some kind of snap back rally in the very near future. At that time, I hope to sell my longs and flip short. 1190-1195 is a reasonable target. Hopefully my model will lead me in the right direction. It's obvious to see my system has problems during transition periods, but it will do pretty well when a new trend is being established. As long as we don't go skyrocketing to new highs, we should be ok.
For comparison's sake, I mentioned earlier today how my system fared in April. To recap, my system flipped to unhealthy on Apr 27. There was a sizable rally the following 2 days, with a great exit for trapped longs on Apr 29. We all know what happened after that. Additionally, I mentioned that in every case, there was always a lower close below the closing price of the day we switched from healthy to unhealthy (Tuesday). So if you're considering shorting, lower prices are in our future. Just watch out for a shakeout rally the next couple days.
Today's Signal: Hold
Last Trade: Buy/Long (11/09 & 11/12)
Commentary
The market experienced a large enough drop today to flip the main status of my model. However, after such a large run up the past few months, I don't expect the bulls to go down with out a fight, therefore I expect some kind of snap back rally in the very near future. At that time, I hope to sell my longs and flip short. 1190-1195 is a reasonable target. Hopefully my model will lead me in the right direction. It's obvious to see my system has problems during transition periods, but it will do pretty well when a new trend is being established. As long as we don't go skyrocketing to new highs, we should be ok.
For comparison's sake, I mentioned earlier today how my system fared in April. To recap, my system flipped to unhealthy on Apr 27. There was a sizable rally the following 2 days, with a great exit for trapped longs on Apr 29. We all know what happened after that. Additionally, I mentioned that in every case, there was always a lower close below the closing price of the day we switched from healthy to unhealthy (Tuesday). So if you're considering shorting, lower prices are in our future. Just watch out for a shakeout rally the next couple days.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Hold
Current market status: Healthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Last Trade: Buy/Long (11/09 & 11/12)
Commentary
The upthrust indicator from earlier today evaporated due to the late day sell off. Regardless, the system posted a hold signal.
Today's Signal: Hold
Last Trade: Buy/Long (11/09 & 11/12)
Commentary
The upthrust indicator from earlier today evaporated due to the late day sell off. Regardless, the system posted a hold signal.
Friday, November 12, 2010
Buy generated
Current market status: Healthy
Friday's Signal: Buy/Long
Commentary
I added to my long position at the close Friday. This coming week is OEX so it could be interesting. I have nothing much to add, so I'll just leave what I posted earlier on Friday. Take care.
My model is showing a down thrust today. Down thrusts (and up thrusts) are a relatively new feature of my system. Thrusts of either kind in a healthy market are usually short term bullish. The last time the VIX was up 11% in 1 day was a couple weeks back. The following day TNA was up 4.5%. The down thrust before that occurred 9/23 and TNA was up over 9% the next day. Down thrusts in an unhealthy market are bearish, so at this point I'm not too worried since the market is healthy. The system is yielding another buy signal today, meaning I will add to my long position. On a related note, I went 100% S fund in my TSP account. Good luck all and have an enjoyable weekend.
Friday's Signal: Buy/Long
Commentary
I added to my long position at the close Friday. This coming week is OEX so it could be interesting. I have nothing much to add, so I'll just leave what I posted earlier on Friday. Take care.
My model is showing a down thrust today. Down thrusts (and up thrusts) are a relatively new feature of my system. Thrusts of either kind in a healthy market are usually short term bullish. The last time the VIX was up 11% in 1 day was a couple weeks back. The following day TNA was up 4.5%. The down thrust before that occurred 9/23 and TNA was up over 9% the next day. Down thrusts in an unhealthy market are bearish, so at this point I'm not too worried since the market is healthy. The system is yielding another buy signal today, meaning I will add to my long position. On a related note, I went 100% S fund in my TSP account. Good luck all and have an enjoyable weekend.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Hold
Current market status: Healthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Last Trade: Buy/Long (11/09/10)
Commentary
Hold that long position. The system suggests higher prices are still to come. A BIG thanks to all our Veterans.
Today's Signal: Hold
Last Trade: Buy/Long (11/09/10)
Commentary
Hold that long position. The system suggests higher prices are still to come. A BIG thanks to all our Veterans.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Hold Long
Current market status: Healthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Latest Trade: Buy/Long (triggered 11/09/10)
Commentary
After some morning weakness, which turned out only to be a shakeout of weak longs, the day ended strongly. My system generated a hold signal. Somewhat disappointed the market sold off immediately following the close. I am guessing tomorrow will be boring with low volume. QE2 officially starts Friday and continues almost daily until the printing presses break.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Today's Signal: Hold
Latest Trade: Buy/Long (triggered 11/09/10)
Commentary
After some morning weakness, which turned out only to be a shakeout of weak longs, the day ended strongly. My system generated a hold signal. Somewhat disappointed the market sold off immediately following the close. I am guessing tomorrow will be boring with low volume. QE2 officially starts Friday and continues almost daily until the printing presses break.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Buy
Current market status: Healthy
Today's Signal: Buy/Long
Commentary
A robust buy signal was issued today. Maybe we'll see another day of down/chop before we head back up, but I really think the downside is limited. Keep in mind, the market is about to be flooded with liquidity beginning later this week - in the form of QE2.
Today's Signal: Buy/Long
Commentary
A robust buy signal was issued today. Maybe we'll see another day of down/chop before we head back up, but I really think the downside is limited. Keep in mind, the market is about to be flooded with liquidity beginning later this week - in the form of QE2.
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