Hold signal.

The system will hold a short position through the weekend, although a buy signal was close to being issued. 

Short Signal

Looks like I'm getting a signal to short the market today.  Bulls should tread cautiously. 

Merry Christmas!

News:  I'm about midway through an upgrade to my system.  This may be the final piece of the puzzle, although I've said that before. :)  The changes will be 2 fold...  The first is to incorporate investor sentiment into the model.  In a nutshell, the system will not go long during overly bullish sentiment, and will not short when everyone is bearish. This leads into the second change... Beginning in 2011, no longer will there be just 3 signals:  Long, Short, or Hold.   Two additional signals will be added to the mix: Sell and Cover. 

This means the model may not always be in the market like it is now.  The model can still flip from long to short, but depending on certain conditions, sometimes the model will flip from long to sell, where longs are closed and a short position is not opened.  Or vice versa, a flip from short to cover will be a possibility when the system deems it unwise to open a long position.

I'm excited to launch these new features.  Backtesting shows some very positive results.  I'm on a trading vacation until mid-late January, but I'll attempt to update this site daily.  Happy holidays!

12/22 - No change...

Today's signal: Hold

Vix down 6% and on pace to hit zero by mid-January. :-p

12/21 Hold Shorts

Signal for today: Hold

Surely this is setting up for a decent size pullback in the weeks to come.  I don't feel too bad - seems no one's signals/systems are working too well right now.  Thanks POMO. 

Short signal - 12/20

System said short at close.  Tomorrow "should" be a down day for various reasons.  But strong seasonality beginning tomorrow says otherwise.  So we'll see....

Long signal

Getting a buy signal today.  I will not be following it as this was my final week of trading until next year. Have a good weekend!