Bearish Megaphone patterns abound...

First up, check out the short term expanding diagonal in SPY.


Also, here's a longer term megaphone in the works (thanks Jim). Target for NYSE looks to be 6500-6600.

Courtesy Stocktiming.com

As for the TSP, I'm looking for a convincing bounce off the 34EMA before jumping head first into the S fund. It could happen this week. I'll keep this site updated with the latest developments and my thinking.

The CCI and CMF

I'm loving these 2 indicators. They've been very profitable the last few weeks, not for the TSP for me yet, but for my personal account. When the CCI or CMF is decreasing, draw a subjective resistance line, and when it rises above that line, buy. Conversely, when the CCI/CMF are rising, draw a subjective line as support and when it falls below, sell. Here are some of the stocks I've been playing. The last chart shows some potential SPY buy & sell signals. Sometimes the CCI works better, sometimes the CMF. When they both show a signal, confidence is even higher.

FNM


PPHM


SIRI


ANDS



SPY with fictitious/hypothetical signals...

Another sell signal...

Besides the "tidal technique" and my "trending technique", Jim introduced to me a third indicator that works pretty damn well.

It's the NYSE McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index. When the McClellan Oscillator moves above zero, it's a buy signal, and when it drops below zero, it's time to get into the G fund. The Summation Index is basically a derivative of the oscillator. When the oscillator is above zero, the summation curve is black. When it's negative, the summation curve is red. See below.

NYSE McClellan Oscillator (I drew in some green and red lines indication "buy" and "sell" dates. Obviously, you won't see these on the raw chart in the link below.)


Matching NYSE Summation Index (Buy black, sell red)


You can see we have dropped below zero and the summation index is red. A pullback is coming. Go long only when the oscillator convincingly moves above zero.

The NYSE MO can be found here:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNYSE.html

And NYSE Summation Index here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$NYSI,uu[m,a]daclynay[dd][p][i]&pref=G

Waiting for a buy signal...

Ok, now that the market is expected to correct at least a little, we need to focus on the 34 ema line. If we bounce off the 34 ema, a buy will be triggered. If (or when) that day comes, the S fund is statistically the better play to maximize profits. If the market crashes down through the 34ema, like it did back in Jan, there would be no buy signal at that time.

The 34 ema current is in the 1128-1130 ballpark, but rising about 2 pts each day. By the end of the week, it should be in the 1135-1140 range. So, that's where we need this correction to go.

Here's a graphic...


In the meantime, while we wait, here are 2 stocks I'm watching this week. Both are in uptrends, and buy signals would be generated as described in the graphics.

PPHM



CYCC

New TTS Signal: Sell

Well, my technical trend system (TTS) triggered a "sell" signal yesterday. The only problem - and it's a pretty big problem - is that the system never triggered a buy signal. grrrr

At any rate, the downside risk is now higher than the upside potential. So, if by chance you have any money outside the G fund, now may be a good time to get it back to safety.

The last time we hit the upper BB to trigger a sell, the market peaked 3 days later, and tanked hard 10 days later.

The spread between the 13 ma and the 34 ema is getting overextended as well indicating a pullpack is likely. Although that should be obvious as SPY has had 14 green candles in a row!!!!

System buy signal for TZA

Montz, this is for you...

My system has a handful of rules. In this case (TZA), rule B was satisfied. In a nutshell, rule B states that when in a downtrend, you buy following 2 consecutive green candles after a bounce off the lower bollinger band (42,2).

Good luck!

Time to short financials?

Sorry this post is off topic from our TSP's, but this is too good to ignore. Here is $BKX (Philly Bank Index).



This chart is very bearish. The rising wedge dating back to early 2009 was broken to the downside recently. Since then, the index has been trying to get back into the wedge, but has been unsuccessful. This action almost always leads to a significant correction. In a nutshell, it's time to buy some FAS puts, short FAS, or buy FAZ. Take your pick, they should all be profitable.