Buy confirmed.

5:15pm: A buy signal was confirmed. Because the late downward surge took the SPX below the critical 1234 level, we did not get a strong buy signal. Thus, my current long position is pretty small at this point.


3pm: A buy signal will be confirmed if SPY closes below 126.59. This is almost a given based on today's action. Further, it is a strong buy signal if the follow 2 conditions are met.

1) SPY closes below 125.81
2) SPX does not drop below 1234

Obviously I would be more confident with the long position if we can get the strong buy, but #2 looks like it could be in jeopardy going into the last hour.

Either way, I will be closing my short position on the close and taking a relatively small long position. Too much uncertainty with the "EZ" to place a 50% bet in my opinion, although the system doesn't work that way.

See ya tomorrow!

Hold confirmed.

No new signal today. Remaining 50% short. Some of my indicators are warning that something big could be coming within a week or so. By big, I mean down big. I'm not willing to wager too much on it right now though.

Hold confirmed.

A hold signal keeps the system at 50% short TNA and 50% cash. See ya tomorrow!

Half stop. Hold remainder.

Even though it appears we may pullback in the short term given today's reversal type candle (which makes 3 in a row?), the system is flipping to healthy mode today and exits half the short position. I did so prematurely on Friday when I thought SPY was going to finish green, so I will remain where I'm at - about 50% short TNA and 50% cash. The system moves back to 50% cash as well. Good evening!

Update - Tech. difficulties today... Twitter and Blogger down for both my phone and laptop.

Hold signal. Covering half my short position.

3:40pm: The system looks to flip to healthy mode today. I'm getting another hold signal, but since SPY is hanging tough in positive territory I'll be closing half my short position. If by some miracle we get a late day selloff, I'll keep my full short position through the weekend. I'm not expecting that to be the case. On the bright side, today could've been worse.

10:30am ET: Sadly, it just doesn't look like this short trade is going to work out for me. Like yesterday, I'll be looking for a green SPY close to dump half my shorts. I'd say based on the first hour of trading, I'm going to be taking a sizable loss today. Ugh.

Hold confirmed. Possible 1/2 stop.

There are only two possibilities today and it hinges on SPY. If SPY closes up for the day, cover half the short position. If it finishes unchanged or down, hold 100% short.

Stop loss in play...

Stop Loss
Reminder if SPY closes green today, the system flips to healthy mode and cuts loose half of the short position. Judging by the market reaction to the 10AM news, this is looking more and more likely. (Or not!!?! 11:25am)

November wrap up
The system is 100% short averaged in at TNA 41.61. TNA needs to drop below this level in order to avoid 2 losing trades in a row. The failed buy signal back on Nov 16th ended up costing the system a good chunk of change, but it still managed to finish the month off on a positive note (+ 7.35%) thanks to the strong performance the first half of Nov. Not counting this (losing) short trade we are in, the system is up 35% for the year.