Current market status: Healthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Last trade: Sell/Short (11/5/10)
Commentary
I was unavailable today, but looking back at the action that was probably a good thing. Volume was pretty anemic. We were very close to generating a buy signal, so I think tomorrow could go either way. I'm still short from last week though. I'm thinking there will be a little pullback into midweek before another surge up late in the week when QE2 is expected to kick off.
Monday, November 8, 2010
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Busy Weekend
I spent a bunch of time this weekend making a minor tweak to the model to incorporate what I'll call a "thrust" component. In a nutshell, when there is a significant drop in the VIX in a "healthy" market, the model will go with the flow as opposed to selling into it. This generates fewer sell/short signals (again, only in a "healthy" market) which is generally what one would expect.
That said, even after the tweak, a short signal was generated on Friday afternoon. This gives me more confidence and I may add to my short position early Monday if we see some strength in the morning.
Good luck all... and go Browns!
That said, even after the tweak, a short signal was generated on Friday afternoon. This gives me more confidence and I may add to my short position early Monday if we see some strength in the morning.
Good luck all... and go Browns!
Friday, November 5, 2010
Current market status: Healthy
Today's Signal: Sell/Short (yet again)
Commentary
QE2 is wiping the floor w/ my system. My system is tuned for trending, but requires at least a small amount of choppiness. Thrusts in any one direction can be a killer. Once all this exuberance dies down next week, hopefully it will come back into line. I'll post some stats this weekend on how this equity draw down compares to others in the past. A tidbit of hope... A co-worker who is notorious for selling bottoms and buying tops just bought into stocks today w/ his retirement account.
Today's Signal: Sell/Short (yet again)
Commentary
QE2 is wiping the floor w/ my system. My system is tuned for trending, but requires at least a small amount of choppiness. Thrusts in any one direction can be a killer. Once all this exuberance dies down next week, hopefully it will come back into line. I'll post some stats this weekend on how this equity draw down compares to others in the past. A tidbit of hope... A co-worker who is notorious for selling bottoms and buying tops just bought into stocks today w/ his retirement account.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Thursday thumping...
Current market status: Healthy
Today's Signal: Sell/Short
Commentary
Not a pleasant day to be short, to say the least. FWIW, the system produced another short signal at the close. But adding more shorts here would be nuts. There appears little doubt we are going higher, possibly much higher. Being short right now, when everyone is so bullish is a good thought, but it's way too early after such a huge upside breakout.
Today's Signal: Sell/Short
Commentary
Not a pleasant day to be short, to say the least. FWIW, the system produced another short signal at the close. But adding more shorts here would be nuts. There appears little doubt we are going higher, possibly much higher. Being short right now, when everyone is so bullish is a good thought, but it's way too early after such a huge upside breakout.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Hold
Current market status: Healthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Last trade: Sell/Short (11/2/10)
Commentary
Bullish sentiment has to be high after today. Would like to see a pullback or correction of some kind now that QE2 is official - and before everything shoots to the moon in an inflationary environment. Poor Dollar. Is gas going back to 4 bucks? Thanks Ben, that'll do wonders for the economy.
Today's Signal: Hold
Last trade: Sell/Short (11/2/10)
Commentary
Bullish sentiment has to be high after today. Would like to see a pullback or correction of some kind now that QE2 is official - and before everything shoots to the moon in an inflationary environment. Poor Dollar. Is gas going back to 4 bucks? Thanks Ben, that'll do wonders for the economy.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Sell short and Oct. Stats
Current market status: Healthy
Latest trade: Sell/Short (11/2/10)
Commentary
Ok, first the good. The long trade from Oct 26 turned out to be positive after spending several days in the red. I got the big up day that I wanted... But now the bad. I was a tad bit discouraged to see the ES take out 1193 after the close. Next stop could be 1205+. Tomorrow should be volatile, especially starting at 2pm. Enjoy the action! Good luck and good evening. -JTrader
October Stats
8 Trades - 6 winners,
2 losers (75%)
% Gain/Loss: +34.31%**
**Basis TNA. Excludes fees, slippage, taxes, etc.
Trades
Date - Signal - TNA
Sep 27 - Long - 45.73
Oct 01 - Short - 47.82
Oct 04 - Long - 45.91
Oct 05 - Hold
Oct 06 - Hold
Oct 07 - Hold
Oct 08 - Short - 50.79*
Oct 11 - Hold
Oct 12 - Long - 51.34
Oct 13 - Hold
Oct 14 - Hold
Oct 15 - Hold
Oct 18 - Short - 54.47
Oct 19 - Long - 50.32
Oct 20 - Short - 52.57
Oct 21 - Hold
Oct 22 - Short
Oct 25 - Hold
Oct 26 - Long - 53.61
*These signals changed to "hold" following the recent tweak to incorporate thrusts.
Latest trade: Sell/Short (11/2/10)
Commentary
Ok, first the good. The long trade from Oct 26 turned out to be positive after spending several days in the red. I got the big up day that I wanted... But now the bad. I was a tad bit discouraged to see the ES take out 1193 after the close. Next stop could be 1205+. Tomorrow should be volatile, especially starting at 2pm. Enjoy the action! Good luck and good evening. -JTrader
October Stats
8 Trades - 6 winners,
2 losers (75%)
% Gain/Loss: +34.31%**
**Basis TNA. Excludes fees, slippage, taxes, etc.
Trades
Date - Signal - TNA
Sep 27 - Long - 45.73
Oct 01 - Short - 47.82
Oct 04 - Long - 45.91
Oct 05 - Hold
Oct 06 - Hold
Oct 07 - Hold
Oct 08 - Short - 50.79*
Oct 11 - Hold
Oct 12 - Long - 51.34
Oct 13 - Hold
Oct 14 - Hold
Oct 15 - Hold
Oct 18 - Short - 54.47
Oct 19 - Long - 50.32
Oct 20 - Short - 52.57
Oct 21 - Hold
Oct 22 - Short
Oct 25 - Hold
Oct 26 - Long - 53.61
*These signals changed to "hold" following the recent tweak to incorporate thrusts.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Another Hold Signal
Current market status: Healthy
Latest signal: Buy/Long (generated 10/26/10)
Commentary
At the close, both the SPY and VIX were up again (!) which is 5 of the past 6 sessions. I don't have stats on it, but that has to be pretty rare. Most indices had outside days today also - and the bearish evidence is starting to stack up. My system showed a sell this morning and had me licking my chops. Then it went neutral by late morning and nearly generated a "buy" at the close. I ended up adding to my long position, but my position is still quite small due to the increased volatility. I'm hoping for a big white candle soon and a short signal so I can pounce.
Latest signal: Buy/Long (generated 10/26/10)
Commentary
At the close, both the SPY and VIX were up again (!) which is 5 of the past 6 sessions. I don't have stats on it, but that has to be pretty rare. Most indices had outside days today also - and the bearish evidence is starting to stack up. My system showed a sell this morning and had me licking my chops. Then it went neutral by late morning and nearly generated a "buy" at the close. I ended up adding to my long position, but my position is still quite small due to the increased volatility. I'm hoping for a big white candle soon and a short signal so I can pounce.
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