Friday, September 9, 2011

Hold confirmed.


Obviously the buy signal is off to a rough start. Hate to see the gap down immediately following a buy signal b/c it usually means the day is going to be ugly. Today was no exception. Nevertheless, next week is a new week. As long as the news is benign and the 9/11 anniversary goes off without a hitch, we could get some sort of bounce next week. Still, 2 questions pop to mind... "Do ya feel lucky?" and...Is holding over the weekend worth the risk? The answer is probably no to both...

The stop loss on the current long trade is actuated if SPY dips below 110.27. So there is some room there - about 50 SPX points. That would equate to a large drop in TNA. At least this time the system is not "all in" yet. We'll see how it goes.

There is still a good chance the chart I posted on 8/31 could become reality. So far, it's been nearly dead-on. If that continues to be the case, next week could be ugly.



Ok, time to relax and enjoy the weekend!
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21 comments:

  1. JoeSeptember 9, 2011 at 4:23 PM

    W/out the Greece news today I think we would have worked our way back up. We were on a good run when the Greece news came through. There is a good argument that we are in a symmetrical triangle with points forming the top on 9/1, 9/8 and 9/9. Bottom on 8/22, 9/6 and today. You could drop the 8/22 and form the same triangle. If nothing happens over the weekend and Greece gets through their issue we could see an upward breakout based on the run up at the close off of the triple bottom of today. Just an observation out there. Who knows.

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  2. MicheleSeptember 9, 2011 at 7:48 PM

    I'm going to agree with Joe. Last night the technicals were supporting a weakly bullish stance for today. My "bull-bear radio" was 3:2.

    There was no way to predict that some guy in Europe we never heard of would quit the ECB and cause the market to tank. So don't be too hard on yourself if today didn't go your way.

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  3. RealMoneyIssuesSeptember 11, 2011 at 4:30 PM

    Is it me, or have all the market indexes (daily, weekly, and monthly) broken below the bear channel (bear flag) and are now heading DOWN???

    Should we be considering going short for the intermediate term to offset the long loss we have suffered? At least until the down trend is confirmed by going below 1140 on the S&P or 2400 on the NASDAQ?

    Just a thought.

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  4. RealMoneyIssuesSeptember 12, 2011 at 7:29 AM

    yup, markets down almost 2% this morning...

    Any ideas how we can use the other 50% of our money to good use to offset the losses so far???

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  5. RealMoneyIssuesSeptember 12, 2011 at 9:43 AM

    Well, since everyone else is still asleep...

    I don't know that I want to wait until after another day of blood letting to see that being long in this market is insane and this is not a healthy market...

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  6. JamesSeptember 12, 2011 at 9:59 AM

    Could just be a bear trap, RMI. The RUT never dropped below. And now SPY is back above...

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  7. JamesSeptember 12, 2011 at 11:08 AM

    Just added a relatively small short position on TVIX at 73.

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  8. MicheleSeptember 12, 2011 at 12:25 PM

    I dunno. TNA is starting to look like a buy to me right here at 38.05 for a quick swing trade. We're close to support that's held thre times with some pretty oversold indicators.

    http://nightowltrader.blogspot.com

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  9. JoeSeptember 12, 2011 at 12:29 PM

    Greece, Greece, Greece, EURO, EURO, EURO killing the market. Nice bounce off of 1123.50. Seems to be some good previous support in that area.

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  10. OldeeeSeptember 12, 2011 at 12:38 PM

    Agree with Michele and Joe. VST going up tomorrow unless something radically changes.

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  11. RealMoneyIssuesSeptember 12, 2011 at 1:45 PM

    I don't know folks... things look to be falling apart...

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  12. MicheleSeptember 12, 2011 at 2:23 PM

    I'd only start getting worried if ES breaks under the 1132-1136 area. If so, we're headed down to 1122. We're at 1136 right now.

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  13. JoeSeptember 12, 2011 at 3:09 PM

    That rally didn't last long. Bears & $ are strong today.

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  14. OldeeeSeptember 12, 2011 at 3:15 PM

    Looks like a tough call. On the sidelines for now.

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  15. OldeeeSeptember 12, 2011 at 3:43 PM

    Never mind. I think I will nibble.

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  16. RealMoneyIssuesSeptember 12, 2011 at 3:45 PM

    Where the heck did that rally come from?

    AND WHY... this market SUCKS

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  17. MicheleSeptember 12, 2011 at 3:49 PM

    Didn't I just tell you to buy TNA at 38.05? :-)

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  18. The Entertainment SpeculatorSeptember 12, 2011 at 3:51 PM

    Every passing day looks better that the market bottomed in Aug. Bears tried but could not take it lower today. News is scary. Sentiment bad. Momentum oscillators all deeply oversold and turning up. Hard to see how it gets any better than this without some better push by the bears.

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  19. JamesSeptember 12, 2011 at 3:54 PM

    Oh... come on RMI! This is fun! :) I'm thoroughly enjoying watching the vix tumble.

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  20. RealMoneyIssuesSeptember 12, 2011 at 4:14 PM

    It isn't fun because there is NO DANG REASON...

    All I am looking at says DOWN DOWN DOWN...

    Where do you see we should be going up????

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  21. JamesSeptember 13, 2011 at 10:05 PM

    I don't see it anywhere. I've just accepted the fact that when I think it should be going down, I'm usually wrong.

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