Another 2% up so far today (not me, another 2% down)...
Since I am at my Stop, do I exercise it and have another 10% loss only to have the market reverse and I get screwed? Dang I am tired of this volatility...
Anyone's surprise at today's action highershould have ended at 10:20 AM, the time when ES took a stab at its daily pivot and was rejected.
That said, I'll admit that last night I was looking for lower today. And given what's going on right now, I think we might still have a least a little more room to run higher.
So, is the market going to ever go down??? I am at 11% and need to either get rid of this before I lose even more, or hold it in hopes that I might recover some of my losses when the market ever goes lower???
Michele, even your analysis favored the bears for several days of the last week; with an intermediate term view of bearish. Many people have that same view...
Then why do we continue to go up...
I know I am in a bad trade, but I kept it because numerous people were saying the markets would go down soon (as early as today to some who say Fri-Mon).
Now it's we are going to go up for the next 3 months. I am completely confused...
RMI, today's signal is going to be a "hold". It could be another "sell" signal, but that's meaningless when the system is already on the sidelines. If you're short, there may be hope later this week, but since my system refuses to generate a short signal (yesterday or today) there just may be more upside to follow.
How's that for a clear answer?!? :) Yeah, that's why I'm all cash.
I just wish I knew today would be up so I could have made a long play to offset or reverse my losses... I am so underwater right now that all I can do is hold...
There are a couple reasons, but the biggest reason by far is that today's candle is not bearish enough to trigger a short. The late morning dip (10-11am) followed by a huge reversal indicates too much upside potential for tomorrow. I'm not saying tomorrow will be up, but it's about a 50/50 chance (roughly) which is not enough of an edge to get the short signal.
1225 to 1230 is possible, but certainly not written in stone. I honestly have no clue where we go from here, I'm just doing what my system tells me. Sorry to hear you are short. I have been there and I know how much it sucks.
RMI, who system are you following? J-trader or IT? it seems like your jumping from one to another. i think you will have better luck if you stick to one side.
i know what you mean, i lost the whole year gain and now i'm in the negative, but i'm not sweating it, its one of those things where its nothing you can do.
Sucks getting stopped out and no more buy signals to take advantage of this up trend...
ReplyDeleteIt seems the only way I can make money is to day trade...
Who has the dang time to do that???
:(
Way to go J! Ah like it. Ah like it ahlot.
ReplyDeleteMore Europe. This is going to go on for a while. Chop Chop Chop!!
ReplyDeleteMore Europe... They just make our market go up...
ReplyDeleteOr something else does...
Another 2% up so far today (not me, another 2% down)...
Since I am at my Stop, do I exercise it and have another 10% loss only to have the market reverse and I get screwed? Dang I am tired of this volatility...
Anyone's surprise at today's action highershould have ended at 10:20 AM, the time when ES took a stab at its daily pivot and was rejected.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I'll admit that last night I was looking for lower today. And given what's going on right now, I think we might still have a least a little more room to run higher.
Just stop listening to the news. It only gets in the way of good decision-making.
ReplyDeleteSo, is the market going to ever go down??? I am at 11% and need to either get rid of this before I lose even more, or hold it in hopes that I might recover some of my losses when the market ever goes lower???
ReplyDeleteWhile I am at it J, any indication of today's move?
ReplyDeleteRMI - what's your time frame and how much heat can you take? If you need to recoup an 11% loss today (I assume you're short), ain't gonna happen.
ReplyDeleteEven on a longer term basis, remember we're about to enter the strongest quarter of the year. I wouldn't want to be short right now.
Michele, even your analysis favored the bears for several days of the last week; with an intermediate term view of bearish. Many people have that same view...
ReplyDeleteThen why do we continue to go up...
I know I am in a bad trade, but I kept it because numerous people were saying the markets would go down soon (as early as today to some who say Fri-Mon).
Now it's we are going to go up for the next 3 months. I am completely confused...
RMI, today's signal is going to be a "hold". It could be another "sell" signal, but that's meaningless when the system is already on the sidelines. If you're short, there may be hope later this week, but since my system refuses to generate a short signal (yesterday or today) there just may be more upside to follow.
ReplyDeleteHow's that for a clear answer?!? :) Yeah, that's why I'm all cash.
Thanks J.
ReplyDeleteI just wish I knew today would be up so I could have made a long play to offset or reverse my losses... I am so underwater right now that all I can do is hold...
Oh, I was wondering...
ReplyDeleteDo you know why your system is not generating short signals?
Last time your system was in a hold for 4 days and there was a $7 drop in TNA... that would have been a good trade in TZA.
Oh, and is there any idea when this pain will stop?
ReplyDeleteWill the market continue going up when many people think it will go down?
SPX 1200 is beat, and will probably hit the 1225-1230 range now and I will be in great pain...
There are a couple reasons, but the biggest reason by far is that today's candle is not bearish enough to trigger a short. The late morning dip (10-11am) followed by a huge reversal indicates too much upside potential for tomorrow. I'm not saying tomorrow will be up, but it's about a 50/50 chance (roughly) which is not enough of an edge to get the short signal.
ReplyDelete1225 to 1230 is possible, but certainly not written in stone. I honestly have no clue where we go from here, I'm just doing what my system tells me. Sorry to hear you are short. I have been there and I know how much it sucks.
ReplyDeleteRMI, who system are you following? J-trader or IT? it seems like your jumping from one to another. i think you will have better luck if you stick to one side.
ReplyDelete"even your analysis favored the bears for several days of the last week"
ReplyDeleteLast week I made one down call, two up calls and one "dunno". The down was right and one of the ups was right.
Don't fight the tape.
I watch 4 systems. You know which one for my other account.
ReplyDeleteI was trying to be more aggressive for my ETFs because I have lost so much over the last 6 weeks+
I have just done it poorly...
i know what you mean, i lost the whole year gain and now i'm in the negative, but i'm not sweating it, its one of those things where its nothing you can do.
ReplyDelete