3:30pm: Looking like a hold signal for today. It's also another VIX down/VXX up day which always makes me leery of long positions.
12:51 pm: I bought more TZA minutes after the open. I'm up to 50% short now averaged in @ 39.58. Here is my speculative game plan, and why I'm shorting here... It could be totally wrong, but it looks good to me! Feel free to comment and/or criticize. :)
Archiving Aug Trades Below....
Interesting speculation and it is a very reasoned thought; however, how can you explain today's strength in the market and what is out there to deny the chance that it won't break above the rising channel?
ReplyDeleteThanks for putting out a position to discuss.
ReplyDeleteHistorically the end and start of the month are favorable for the market. Would seem the market is inclined to go up over the next several days before making a reversal in the trend as you indicate.
Major damage was done early this month. The market can't just ignore that then go on and simply & easily recover. It will take time. During that time, volatility should remain high and lows will be tested. I am predicting 1100 SPX will not hold.
ReplyDeleteCongrats on being positive YTD again! If only they had you at LTCM, maybe you could've turned them around LOL.
ReplyDeleteSome crazy weird session. I honestly didn't think we were going to see any upside today at all. Given that tomorrow is the 1st of the month, I make have to rethink my bearish outlook.
ReplyDeleteD, thanks! And lol @ LTCM. I'm just an amateur. If I was running LTCM, they would've failed way sooner! :)
ReplyDeleteMichele, I'm with ya regarding today. I felt like the gap up was a gift just begging to be sold. As for tomorrow, I'm mixed. I suppose it could be up, but there is too much downside risk right now. My system is not offering up a buy signal, so I will probably just keep the shorts going.
I wonder if the ISM number was messed with as most folks thought it would be below 50.... hmmm
ReplyDeleteAnyway, another day up... Is 36 still a viable stop on TZA since that would be a 10% loss?
Ya ever see someone trying to sneeze? They go "Ah... ahh..." and you keep waiting for the "choo" but it just doesn't happen? That's what this market is like right now. C'mon, Mr. Market, I haven't got all day!
ReplyDeleteI'm encouraged that the post ISM strength has been reversed. However, I too am waiting anxiously for the sneeze. (nice anology, btw) I am pulling for the bears but they r failing to deliver. I think they are waiting to strike until tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteWell this is more like it...
ReplyDeleteNow as long as those pesky bulls don't buy the dip yet again, my day will be complete. :)
My guess is they won't. Looks like the "choo" just blew :-)
ReplyDelete"Now as long as those pesky bulls don't buy the dip yet again, my day will be complete. :)"
ReplyDeleteLooks like some buying is going on...
Well what time frame are you interested in? Over the last hour today, it's not out of the question to get some upward motion, but on a daily basis it looks like we're (finally) headed lower.
ReplyDelete