4:10pm: The short signal was confirmed. All my longs have been closed and I'm partially short. Interestingly, if tomorrow is green we will flip back to healthy and since I'm now short, we may get to test out the new stop loss!! Fun stuff. I've updated the right side of the page to mention the new stop loss rules.
3:54pm: Short signal is confirmed with a TNA close above 48.30.
3:45pm: We are very close to a short signal. It's going back and forth. Will update when I know.
12:40pm: Just a heads up, I'm getting a solid sell signal today, much more solid than the borderline signal we had on Thursday. I'm actually going take heed of this one and dump a large majority of my longs in hopes of buying them back a bit cheaper in the next couple days. Additionally, if we hold our gains this afternoon and we finish even higher tomorrow, we will flip back to healthy mode. That's hard for me to believe given the extreme decline we just had. Unless this is a V-bottom (we just had 1 in March) I would expect a retest of 1100. I suppose it would be possible to tag the 200 day MA before the next leg down, but that feels like quite a stretch. What do you all think?
read my post on the last thread you posted.
ReplyDeleteI have no clue what your signals are based on....I see a go long if above 48.87
ReplyDeleteJT -
ReplyDeletethanks for keeping us posted.
I closed my trapped TNA at $48.6 today. the loss is about -40%.
let's see if we could get better with the model as we try to work out the wrinkles.
737, you've got your system, I've got mine. :) Mine is usually quite nimble, not always of course, but it could just as easily go long again tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteY Z,
Sold the rest of my longs right around that price as well. Got a good fill on some TNA shorts at 48.95 seconds before the close. Should be interesting...
My own prediction last night for today was correct, and I'm going to stand by my call last week that TNA is headed for 50 by Wednesday before going lower.
ReplyDeleteWith all due respect, I see nothing in the charts right now to suggest selling TNA, much less going short. It will be fascinating to see how this all plays out on Tuesday. I suspect a lot may depend on how Angela and Nicky make out on their date...
I do say if TNA hits the 8 day EMA like it did today and could not close higher, there is the chance it can go lower. The candlesticks show a buy.... JTRADER....not busting on you just trying to give you some insight to compare your signals with...if you don't want it I'll go somewhere else...good luck...
ReplyDeleteM,
ReplyDeleteGoing short here probably is a bit loony, I'll give ya that. But I'm not going to doubt my system after just 1 bad (ok, it was horrendous) trade. Let's see how it works out. Before long I hope to have you touting my "hot handed" system on your page again. :)
737, I appreciate your insights, you're welcome to hang around and post whatever you feel is relevant. My system attempts to pick exact tops and bottoms and usually it works pretty darn well. As I mentioned, if we pull back a little bit tomorrow I could be going long again and we'd be back on the same side of the trade. Time will tell.
ReplyDeleteWell JT, that's why I said "with all due respect", and I was being sincere. Anyone can be wrong sometime Lord knows I'm wrong often enough. And the July crash caught plenty of people in its wake.
ReplyDeleteBut personally I believe that you can't always just follow mechanical instructions. If your GPS says "turn left here" right at the edge of a cliff, do you? When I fly, I love turning on the autopilot - but I always keep an eye on the instruments anyway.
It's not a competition. I was pleased to mention your system on my blog when it was doing well and I refrained from criticizing it when it went over the cliff. All I can do is call 'em like I sees 'em. Meanwhile, let's all make some money.
Well, I missed the signal and the time to get any trades in before close of the market (really need to move over the ThinkorSwim so I can do trades 8am-8pm...
ReplyDeleteI hope I don't get clobbered tomorrow.
lol...NICE SHORT!! If you can just get that sell signal to work a little faster on those cliffs.....
ReplyDeleteJoe, yeah, for those that made it... dang WORK gets in the way of my trading... :D
ReplyDeleteWork is a good thing my friend! After the last few weeks it's obvious I shouldn't be quitting my day job anytime soon. :)
ReplyDeleteThanks Joe! The stop loss rules should prevent anything like that from happening again. The trade off is that I'll occasionally be getting stopped out before a trade has a chance to snap back - which is why it's only a 50% stop. Even though I lost a bunch of $$$ last 2 weeks I feel confident going forward.
Michele, I completely understand your point. But I guess my problem with it is that I will never be able to outperform my system over the long run. I've tried and failed. So if that's the case, I may as well follow it blindly - especially now that I've got some built in protection against huge losses.
JT - I hear ya. And congratulations - you were absolutely right about today - TNA down an impressive 5.5% right now. I did eventually come around to your way of thinking but that wasn't until 2 AM this morning, not yesterday afternoon.
ReplyDeleteWell, there will absolutely be no buy signal today. There could be a "cover" signal to exit the short position, but it would take more weakness this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteMichele, just read your blog. Another super post. I appreciate your ability to equally analyze both the bullish and bearish case. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteThanks - that's nice to hear. I try not to go in with any preconceived notions.
ReplyDelete