Hold confirmed

3:47pm: Hold signal is confirmed. Holding 50% short position over the weekend. 

3:27pm: Another close one today!  It's either gonna be a hold or cover signal. No other options at this point.  Could come down to the last couple minutes, so be ready to buy to cover if you're following along.

Short confirmed.

3:55pm: Short is confirmed.

Heads up - the system is trying to go short again.  At least we were able to sidestep the launch from the jobs report this morning.

Cover confirmed.

4pm: The system moves to the sideline after taking about a 1% loss on the short position. There is too much uncertainty to be long or short right now. If I had to guess, I say we go higher from here though.

The short position will be closed if SPY finishes flat or higher today, even if it's only by 0.01.  If SPY finishes in the red, we'll maintain the 50% short position.  Right now it's too close to call, so we'll have to see what happens.  Yesterday and today should've been the best days for a quick pullback to occur.  Since it never really happened, I suspect we'll go higher this week.  The bears only hope is if SPY finishes down today.

Twitter feed...

With the addition of twitter to my site, you'll notice some changes.  The most obvious is the link to follow me on twitter. The other change is the feed right below it.  That will now be the location where my latest signal will be posted. This is to make life easier on me so I'm not having to update 2 different things right before the market closes... which is already crunch time.  I will still post commentary at some point during the day, but it may not always be before the close. 

Hold

3:53pm: Hold confirmed.  Twitter feed should be available sometime this week...

2:37pm:  FYI, looks like we'll get a hold signal today. I'll update later.

Monthly wrap-up

June kicked off with a short signal on the first of the month, which I remember at the time just didn't feel like the right trade. One thing I have learned though is that the best trades usually are the ones that are the most uncomfortable.  It was followed the next day by a buy signal which actually felt good.  We know how that trade turned out.  About the only positive thing I can say about it was that half my money was locked up in cash as the market sank.  The market fell enough by Jun 6 to flip the status to unhealthy. On the next pop, the system fled to safety on Jun 14.  That didn't last long as another buy signal was generated the next day.  A few days later we were out with another decent profit.  A profitable short signal was generated on the 21st.  The market was beginning to show signs of life that week as it bottomed and a strong buy signal was generated on the 24th.  I gave it a 40% chance of a 10% gain in 3-6 days, and sure enough TNA went up 16% in 5 days.  Not bad! Of course, I only captured half of that since I was only 50% long.

For the month, June was up a modest 2.89%.  However, July is already up 8.08%(!) since we closed the long trade on the 1st.  I strive for 5% a month so we are off to a good start and making up nicely for a sub-par June.  For the year, we are up nearly 40%!  (+39.81% to be exact.)  I'm not sure how long the system can maintain this kind of exceptional performance, but I'm sure enjoying the ride.  Since we got a short signal, I'm guessing we'll see a small/quick pullback before the market heads higher.  It doesn't matter what I think though...I tend not to argue with something that is up 40% in 6 months. :)  Have a great 4th weekend. See ya back here on Tuesday.

50% Short (+ June Trades)

11pm: For those following my system (and paying attention :) longs should've been sold and a 50% short position should've been opened.   I'll try to make a short weekend post along with updating system stats and such. Market is closed Monday so I'll see ya here Tuesday! 

3pm update: A $VIX close of 15.70 or higher generates a SHORT signal.  Otherwise, a hold signal is confirmed.   We're driving back home today so this is my last update until the weekend.  Watch the VIX.  Have a good one.

1:56pm: Another hold signal is on tap today.  This has been a great run.  I suppose my only gripe would be that I am 50% cash.

I'll look into getting a twitter account which would allow me to send out my signals live to anyone interested.  Thanks for the suggestion.

 If we see significant weakness before the close today, we could flip to a sell signal.  If we don't see weakness, no need to check back here... it will be a hold signal.

For archiving purposes...

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

Date	Signal	TNA
May 31	Short	88.90
Jun 1	Buy	80.52
Jun 2	Hold
Jun 3	Hold
Jun 6	Hold
Jun 7	Hold
Jun 8	Hold
Jun 9	Hold
Jun 10	Hold
Jun 13	Hold
Jun 14	Sell	72.43
Jun 15	Buy	68.65
Jun 16	Hold
Jun 17	Hold
Jun 20	Sell	71.06
Jun 21	Short	75.75
Jun 22	Hold
Jun 23	Hold
Jun 24	Buy	73.55
Jun 27	Hold
Jun 28	Hold
Jun 29	Hold
Jun 30	Hold