4pm: The system moves to the sideline after taking about a 1% loss on the short position. There is too much uncertainty to be long or short right now. If I had to guess, I say we go higher from here though.
The short position will be closed if SPY finishes flat or higher today, even if it's only by 0.01. If SPY finishes in the red, we'll maintain the 50% short position. Right now it's too close to call, so we'll have to see what happens. Yesterday and today should've been the best days for a quick pullback to occur. Since it never really happened, I suspect we'll go higher this week. The bears only hope is if SPY finishes down today.
Ok, not complaining here although it may sound like it... I apologize up front.
ReplyDeleteIs there another similar indicator that you can use to make a conclusion when it is so close that there is no way to know until after the market closes???
Most of us don't have access to after- or pre-market trading so by the time the market opens for us normal folks, we may have already lost 1-3% because of this trading.
Last minute indications a lot of time don't allow for quick orders. I hope that by the time I can execute an order to sell tomorrow morning that SPXU hasn't tanked... I don't like holding a short in hopes it recovers because it might not any time soon, so I will sell... however...
Just a thought.
Thanks :D
Nope. Realtime EOD signals run into exactly the problem you speak of, part of what one gains by NOT having to act at the next open. I followed a Mutual Fund timing model which used A/D numbers and sometimes what should have been done became clear at 4:01, so sorry. Again, no free lunch, something is gained, something else is a pain. Hope that helps.
ReplyDeleteRMI, this was a relatively easy one. It was indeed too close to call at 3:55pm, but by 3:59 it was pretty obvious that SPY wasn't going to close down. I had my order all set to go beforehand and had my finger on the button. With about 30 seconds to go I pulled the trigger and closed my short position. Assuming you have good real time bid/ask prices and a decent internet connection, you're all set. Some days truly are too close to call, but I don't think today was one of them.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the feedback, and thanks to Daniel.
Agree with J-Trader, although it probably does take some trading experience "to know" what the close will look like on some days. It seems sufficiently helpful to have the parameters 15 minutes ahead. No useful system is fool proof.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately for me, I didn't get your twitter information (from refreshing your page) until 1558 and as I don't have reliable internet or real-time (other than Google or MarketWatch) I just didn't make it.
ReplyDeleteNo biggie, I will sell my SPXU and immediately buy UPRO and hope to make up the difference on the long positions.
You were the only system I watch that was short, the others were long, so in reality I should have sold earlier today even just so I wouldn't have this issues.
All I can say is: another lesson learned :D
No worries. I think there are an infinite number of lessons to be learned when it comes to trading. :)
ReplyDelete