530pm: Short signal was confirmed. I moved to 75% short, 25% cash. Enjoy the weekend!
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Ugh, sad to have missed this big up day! We got the sell signal 1 day too early. Looking forward to today, I am getting a strong short signal right now. We are overextended and due for a pullback. Today may or may not be the top, but my system is offering a strong warning here.
If SPY closes 133.75 or higher, the system goes short. If 133.74 or lower, it remains on the sidelines. I will only need to update if we have a huge sell-off this afternoon.
Appreciate the early read on the signal.
ReplyDeleteThanks
In anticipation of a strong short signal, I was wondering if you've given any thought to the "enter a position 50% at a time" rule.
ReplyDeleteI'm keeping it unchanged for now, although there's a good chance I will take a bigger short position if we have a strong finish.
DeleteLooks like we're getting a good price. No late day weakness...which bodes well for this short position.
ReplyDeleteCan you clarify your system returns? I notice that in July '11 you had a 51.24% YTD return. But then in August you posted a 29.44% loss, leaving a 6.68% YTD return.
ReplyDeleteIs one of those numbers a typo or am I not understanding how you compute them?
Say you start 2011 with 10,000 and by July it's up to 15,121...up 51.21%.
DeleteTaking a 29.44% loss on that amount equates to $4,451.62, which leaves you with 10,668...or up 6.68% from your beginning amount for 2011. Make sense? All my stats are compounded with every trade.
OK, sure. Thanks :-)
ReplyDeleteA little gap down, but SPY looks like it is heading to gap fill and VIX is heading down...
ReplyDeleteI don't know that we can ever short this market until it tanks... then it's too late :)
Have some faith and patience RMI. Certainly my system won't have 3 failed short trades in a row. :)
ReplyDeleteI am plum out of Hopium... maybe faith and patience will work... ;)
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