Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Hold

3:50pm:  Hold confirmed.  Still unhealthy and still holding shorts...  So far, so good.  Should be more downside to follow.

1:45pm: As I alluded to yesterday, a green SPY finish will flip the system back to healthy status.  Interestingly though, we could still get a short signal today despite the flip.  Indeed, we could get a relatively rare healthy short signal which would put the system all in short - 100%.   For this to happen, the high of the day (SPX 1298.61) would have to remain unchanged, and SPY would have to finish at 129.68 or higher.   If the high of the day is exceeded, the required SPY value would change. With FOMC minutes expected after 2pm things could change quickly. So as usual look for a late day update.

Also, be on the lookout tomorrow (Thurs) for a post on the inner workings of my system, as requested.  I won't get too much into the details, but at least you'll understand what the heck is going on.
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14 comments:

  1. The Entertainment SpeculatorJune 22, 2011 at 3:44 PM

    Thanks for sharing your work. Been coming here daily for three months now. Looking forward to your "inner workings" post tomorrow.

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  2. JoeJune 22, 2011 at 3:50 PM

    Not sure if it was the Fed or the $ or both but we're getting a nice topping tail at the end of the day.

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  3. J-TraderJune 22, 2011 at 3:56 PM

    TES, thanks for being a loyal visitor, through the good times and bad. Most probably flee after 1 bad trade such as the Jun 1-14 fiasco.

    Always nice to get some instant gratification the day after a signal.

    Thanks Joe.

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  4. JoeJune 23, 2011 at 9:05 AM

    The $ is clearly driving the market. Nice call on that short!! If the $ breaks thru the 6/9, 1/10 downward trend line this market could really go south. E-mini bouncing off the 200 dma right now. This will be an interesting day.

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  5. RealMoneyIssuesJune 23, 2011 at 9:05 AM

    I held my SPXU yesterday mainly because of your Hold signal. I am up 4% this morning because of it, so thanks!!
    I am probably going to do well today, but am not sure what is going to happen intrra-day or tomorrow. Looking forward to your assessment!

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  6. J-TraderJune 23, 2011 at 9:19 AM

    If I had to guess, I would say this is just a major shakeout of weak longs and we'll go up from here. I'd be tempted to cover shorts on the open. I'll wait to see how it develops though.

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  7. JoeJune 23, 2011 at 9:24 AM

    $ failed to punch thru its trend line on first attempt this morning. All eyes that I listen to are on the $.
    GDP will be the big news tomorrow!!

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  8. RealMoneyIssuesJune 23, 2011 at 9:39 AM

    Does anyone think that plunging oil prices (and rising associated stocks) will cause the markets (specifically the S&P) to go up and offset the downtrend because of the economic news?

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  9. JoeJune 23, 2011 at 9:59 AM

    Here comes the housing #. Lets see if it is a good number to go with the oil news.

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  10. JoeJune 23, 2011 at 10:09 AM

    Somewhat neutral to better on housing number. $ pulling back.

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  11. JoeJune 23, 2011 at 11:13 AM

    One big consolidation morning.

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  12. RealMoneyIssuesJune 23, 2011 at 11:33 AM

    But what will the afternoon do?

    I am thinking that big money will come in to buy all the cheap stocks...

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  13. JoeJune 23, 2011 at 11:43 AM

    If the $ keeps pulling back the buyers will keep coming.

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  14. JoeJune 24, 2011 at 10:25 AM

    If the IHS on the DX continues to form and breaks out this market could really head south. $ is strong this morning and the vix is moving up this morning also.

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