Both systems hold...

Both systems will remain out of phase, with the JTSystem holding the long position and the CCI remaining short.

This keeps me on the sidelines... Made some good progress on updated CCI system today.

Take care!



May Sigs...

Date	J-T System	CCI System	TNA
Apr 25	Hold	Short	57.70
Apr 26	Short	Hold	59.21
May 1	Hold	Hold
May 2	Hold	Hold
May 3	Buy	Hold	56.77
May 4	Buy #2	Cover	53.51
May 7	Hold	Hold
May 8	Half Stop	Hold	53.93
May 9	Hold	Buy	52.90
May 10	Hold	Hold
May 11	Hold	Hold
May 14	Hold	Hold
May 15	Buy	Hold	50.82
May 16	Hold	Hold
May 17	Hold	Hold
May 18	Hold	Hold
May 21	Hold	Hold
May 22	Hold	Hold
May 23	Hold	Hold
May 24	Hold	Hold
May 25	Hold	Sell	48.34
May 28	Closed	Closed
May 29	Short	Short	50.45
May 30	Buy	Hold	47.57
May 31	Hold	Hold

CCI update...

There are several members who are eagerly awaiting a thorough CCI post, complete with stats and strategies. This post will be the first in a series of CCI updates over the next several days... I just wanted to bring you up to speed with what I've been working on these past few weeks. I want the CCI system to kick serious butt, however as I've been pouring over these stats, all I see is a system that is heavily biased toward mean reversion and can get absolutely crushed in an irrational, trending market. It doesn't happen often, but once or twice a year (each and every year like clockwork) the system will take a major beat-down and it spends the rest of the time booking solid gains to get back to even or better. So while it's true the winning rate is just under 90%, the 10% worth of losing trades were capital killers. I've been wresting with how to manage those scenarios and minimize losses. The short signals were particularly risky. I've looked at several different techniques. The first one I considered was averaging in on a position. Not bad... The second technique involved stop losses. (For those that don't know, I hate stop losses.) This method definitely minimized losses, but left way too much profit on the table. After more testing and deliberating, I think I've come up with the perfect solution with no need for stop losses and no need to average into a position. The best part is that it incorporates the trend into the equation.

Here is how it will work. I will use a CCI moving average (currently set at 21, but it may change depending on current testing) to determine whether the market is uptrending or downtrending, depending of course whether the 21ma line is above or below zero respectively. The day it flips from positive to negative or vice versa, the system will initiate a 50% position in the direction of the flip and hold that position until it flips the other way. The other 50% will follow the signals generated by the system, which again tends toward mean reversion. This will minimize risk and maximize profits, particularly in a trending market. I hope to have this finished prior to June 1st, at which time we will switch to the new methodology. I'm still in testing mode, so I don't have too much else to report today. More tomorrow, hopefully. Thanks for you continued patience with this new system. Feel free to post your thoughts.

Double Short...

Both systems are moving to short signals today. The JT System sells the long position (finally) and goes 100% short TNA. CCI also takes a 100% short position using TNA. Thanks!

CCI Sell.

Jtsystem is a hold signal. Cci moves to a sell and goes to cash. Have a good weekend! See ya tues.

As I mentioned yesterday, today is a key day for both systems. First off, and this really has no bearing on the current Jtrader position, but the system could flip to healthy mode if SPY closes green today. I doubt it gives a sell signal, but I'm not sure at this point.

Meanwhile, the CCI system is probably going to give a sell signal today. (It is not quite giving a short signal.) All that has to happen for the sell signal is for the white line CCI(14) to close above its 21-day moving average. Right now, it is... I will return later with the official signals.

Hold confirmed.

Nothing new today with either system. They both remain long with hold signals. Tomorrow will be a key day for both systems, which I will detail later today or possibly tomorrow. See ya then!

Hold confirmed.

What a trip. Down ~20 SPX points to positive territory? This market's wacky... is that usually a good thing? Probably not. Regardless, both systems are holding the long position yet again. Good luck to us... Take care.

Hold confirmed.

Both models once again are generating hold signals, keeping them 100% long. Not the most ideal intraday action today, but another push up is still expected.