Current market status: Unhealthy
Today's Signal: Buy
Commentary
Another consolidation day. I'm slightly bullish the next few days, but bearish beyond that.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Monday, November 29, 2010
Hold
Current market status: Unhealthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Previous Trade: Buy/Long (11/26)
Commentary
Wacky day. Smells fishy... smells like POMO... Hold tight.
Today's Signal: Hold
Previous Trade: Buy/Long (11/26)
Commentary
Wacky day. Smells fishy... smells like POMO... Hold tight.
Friday, November 26, 2010
Buy
Current market status: Unhealthy
Today's Signal: Buy/Long
Commentary
While I wasn't paying attention this afternoon, a buy signal reared it's head. I am somewhat skeptical after another large spike in the VIX. That's 4 in the past 10 trading days and could spell trouble. I am bearish for other reasons and doubt I will make any serious bets on the long side this upcoming week.
Today's Signal: Buy/Long
Commentary
While I wasn't paying attention this afternoon, a buy signal reared it's head. I am somewhat skeptical after another large spike in the VIX. That's 4 in the past 10 trading days and could spell trouble. I am bearish for other reasons and doubt I will make any serious bets on the long side this upcoming week.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Another Short Signal
Current market status: Unhealthy
Today's Signal: Sell/Short
Commentary
Another short signal was generated today. However, I will wait til Friday to add more shorts. After a huge up day, this rally has to have more steam left in the tank.
Today's Signal: Sell/Short
Commentary
Another short signal was generated today. However, I will wait til Friday to add more shorts. After a huge up day, this rally has to have more steam left in the tank.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Hold
Current market status: Unhealthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Previous Trade: Sell/Short (generated 11/18)
Commentary
Not a whole lot to say. Everybody and their sister knows the next 2 trading days are bullish, historically speaking. Looking at late night futures action, I think they're going to be right after all. On the other hand, we had another down thrust according to my system, and this is bearish in an unhealthy market. I think there will be some upside the next few days, but next week could be ugly for bulls. Wed/Fri could offer some excellent opportunities to add shorts. Time will tell.
Today's Signal: Hold
Previous Trade: Sell/Short (generated 11/18)
Commentary
Not a whole lot to say. Everybody and their sister knows the next 2 trading days are bullish, historically speaking. Looking at late night futures action, I think they're going to be right after all. On the other hand, we had another down thrust according to my system, and this is bearish in an unhealthy market. I think there will be some upside the next few days, but next week could be ugly for bulls. Wed/Fri could offer some excellent opportunities to add shorts. Time will tell.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Hold
Current market status: Unhealthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Previous Trade: Sell/Short (generated 11/18)
Commentary
Strong seasonality on tap for this week, but bearish evidence is starting to mount. I think the next drop could be a big one.
Today's Signal: Hold
Previous Trade: Sell/Short (generated 11/18)
Commentary
Strong seasonality on tap for this week, but bearish evidence is starting to mount. I think the next drop could be a big one.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Hold signal today...
Current market status: Unhealthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Previous Trade: Sell/Short (generated 11/18)
Commentary
I attempted to add to my short position at the close but my limit order was just missed by a few pennies. Usually I won't add to my position on a hold signal, but Monday is the day after Opex which has a bearish seasonality. Perhaps there will be a good entry point Monday morning. A gap up to resistance would fit the bill. Have a good weekend!
Today's Signal: Hold
Previous Trade: Sell/Short (generated 11/18)
Commentary
I attempted to add to my short position at the close but my limit order was just missed by a few pennies. Usually I won't add to my position on a hold signal, but Monday is the day after Opex which has a bearish seasonality. Perhaps there will be a good entry point Monday morning. A gap up to resistance would fit the bill. Have a good weekend!
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Sell longs... and short!
Current market status: Unhealthy
Today's Signal: Sell/Short
Commentary
It was hard to go short at the close after such a strong move upward. Then I remembered Rule #20 over at the Kirk Report. I only opened a smallish short position which I will hold until my system says otherwise. Next week is statistically bullish (well, Wed and Fri anyways) so I'm hoping to go long around midweek. We'll see what my model spits out. Good luck all.
Today's Signal: Sell/Short
Commentary
It was hard to go short at the close after such a strong move upward. Then I remembered Rule #20 over at the Kirk Report. I only opened a smallish short position which I will hold until my system says otherwise. Next week is statistically bullish (well, Wed and Fri anyways) so I'm hoping to go long around midweek. We'll see what my model spits out. Good luck all.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Hold
Current market status: Unhealthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Last Trade: Buy/Long (11/09 & 11/12)
Commentary
Not much to add today. We formed an inside bar, which is generally considered bullish when in a downtrend. Will be waiting patiently for a sell signal so I can dump my small long position and try to make some money on the short side.
Today's Signal: Hold
Last Trade: Buy/Long (11/09 & 11/12)
Commentary
Not much to add today. We formed an inside bar, which is generally considered bullish when in a downtrend. Will be waiting patiently for a sell signal so I can dump my small long position and try to make some money on the short side.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Unhealthy...
Current market status: Unhealthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Last Trade: Buy/Long (11/09 & 11/12)
Commentary
The market experienced a large enough drop today to flip the main status of my model. However, after such a large run up the past few months, I don't expect the bulls to go down with out a fight, therefore I expect some kind of snap back rally in the very near future. At that time, I hope to sell my longs and flip short. 1190-1195 is a reasonable target. Hopefully my model will lead me in the right direction. It's obvious to see my system has problems during transition periods, but it will do pretty well when a new trend is being established. As long as we don't go skyrocketing to new highs, we should be ok.
For comparison's sake, I mentioned earlier today how my system fared in April. To recap, my system flipped to unhealthy on Apr 27. There was a sizable rally the following 2 days, with a great exit for trapped longs on Apr 29. We all know what happened after that. Additionally, I mentioned that in every case, there was always a lower close below the closing price of the day we switched from healthy to unhealthy (Tuesday). So if you're considering shorting, lower prices are in our future. Just watch out for a shakeout rally the next couple days.
Today's Signal: Hold
Last Trade: Buy/Long (11/09 & 11/12)
Commentary
The market experienced a large enough drop today to flip the main status of my model. However, after such a large run up the past few months, I don't expect the bulls to go down with out a fight, therefore I expect some kind of snap back rally in the very near future. At that time, I hope to sell my longs and flip short. 1190-1195 is a reasonable target. Hopefully my model will lead me in the right direction. It's obvious to see my system has problems during transition periods, but it will do pretty well when a new trend is being established. As long as we don't go skyrocketing to new highs, we should be ok.
For comparison's sake, I mentioned earlier today how my system fared in April. To recap, my system flipped to unhealthy on Apr 27. There was a sizable rally the following 2 days, with a great exit for trapped longs on Apr 29. We all know what happened after that. Additionally, I mentioned that in every case, there was always a lower close below the closing price of the day we switched from healthy to unhealthy (Tuesday). So if you're considering shorting, lower prices are in our future. Just watch out for a shakeout rally the next couple days.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Hold
Current market status: Healthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Last Trade: Buy/Long (11/09 & 11/12)
Commentary
The upthrust indicator from earlier today evaporated due to the late day sell off. Regardless, the system posted a hold signal.
Today's Signal: Hold
Last Trade: Buy/Long (11/09 & 11/12)
Commentary
The upthrust indicator from earlier today evaporated due to the late day sell off. Regardless, the system posted a hold signal.
Friday, November 12, 2010
Buy generated
Current market status: Healthy
Friday's Signal: Buy/Long
Commentary
I added to my long position at the close Friday. This coming week is OEX so it could be interesting. I have nothing much to add, so I'll just leave what I posted earlier on Friday. Take care.
My model is showing a down thrust today. Down thrusts (and up thrusts) are a relatively new feature of my system. Thrusts of either kind in a healthy market are usually short term bullish. The last time the VIX was up 11% in 1 day was a couple weeks back. The following day TNA was up 4.5%. The down thrust before that occurred 9/23 and TNA was up over 9% the next day. Down thrusts in an unhealthy market are bearish, so at this point I'm not too worried since the market is healthy. The system is yielding another buy signal today, meaning I will add to my long position. On a related note, I went 100% S fund in my TSP account. Good luck all and have an enjoyable weekend.
Friday's Signal: Buy/Long
Commentary
I added to my long position at the close Friday. This coming week is OEX so it could be interesting. I have nothing much to add, so I'll just leave what I posted earlier on Friday. Take care.
My model is showing a down thrust today. Down thrusts (and up thrusts) are a relatively new feature of my system. Thrusts of either kind in a healthy market are usually short term bullish. The last time the VIX was up 11% in 1 day was a couple weeks back. The following day TNA was up 4.5%. The down thrust before that occurred 9/23 and TNA was up over 9% the next day. Down thrusts in an unhealthy market are bearish, so at this point I'm not too worried since the market is healthy. The system is yielding another buy signal today, meaning I will add to my long position. On a related note, I went 100% S fund in my TSP account. Good luck all and have an enjoyable weekend.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Hold
Current market status: Healthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Last Trade: Buy/Long (11/09/10)
Commentary
Hold that long position. The system suggests higher prices are still to come. A BIG thanks to all our Veterans.
Today's Signal: Hold
Last Trade: Buy/Long (11/09/10)
Commentary
Hold that long position. The system suggests higher prices are still to come. A BIG thanks to all our Veterans.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Hold Long
Current market status: Healthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Latest Trade: Buy/Long (triggered 11/09/10)
Commentary
After some morning weakness, which turned out only to be a shakeout of weak longs, the day ended strongly. My system generated a hold signal. Somewhat disappointed the market sold off immediately following the close. I am guessing tomorrow will be boring with low volume. QE2 officially starts Friday and continues almost daily until the printing presses break.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Today's Signal: Hold
Latest Trade: Buy/Long (triggered 11/09/10)
Commentary
After some morning weakness, which turned out only to be a shakeout of weak longs, the day ended strongly. My system generated a hold signal. Somewhat disappointed the market sold off immediately following the close. I am guessing tomorrow will be boring with low volume. QE2 officially starts Friday and continues almost daily until the printing presses break.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Buy
Current market status: Healthy
Today's Signal: Buy/Long
Commentary
A robust buy signal was issued today. Maybe we'll see another day of down/chop before we head back up, but I really think the downside is limited. Keep in mind, the market is about to be flooded with liquidity beginning later this week - in the form of QE2.
Today's Signal: Buy/Long
Commentary
A robust buy signal was issued today. Maybe we'll see another day of down/chop before we head back up, but I really think the downside is limited. Keep in mind, the market is about to be flooded with liquidity beginning later this week - in the form of QE2.
Monday, November 8, 2010
Lackluster Monday
Current market status: Healthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Last trade: Sell/Short (11/5/10)
Commentary
I was unavailable today, but looking back at the action that was probably a good thing. Volume was pretty anemic. We were very close to generating a buy signal, so I think tomorrow could go either way. I'm still short from last week though. I'm thinking there will be a little pullback into midweek before another surge up late in the week when QE2 is expected to kick off.
Today's Signal: Hold
Last trade: Sell/Short (11/5/10)
Commentary
I was unavailable today, but looking back at the action that was probably a good thing. Volume was pretty anemic. We were very close to generating a buy signal, so I think tomorrow could go either way. I'm still short from last week though. I'm thinking there will be a little pullback into midweek before another surge up late in the week when QE2 is expected to kick off.
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Busy Weekend
I spent a bunch of time this weekend making a minor tweak to the model to incorporate what I'll call a "thrust" component. In a nutshell, when there is a significant drop in the VIX in a "healthy" market, the model will go with the flow as opposed to selling into it. This generates fewer sell/short signals (again, only in a "healthy" market) which is generally what one would expect.
That said, even after the tweak, a short signal was generated on Friday afternoon. This gives me more confidence and I may add to my short position early Monday if we see some strength in the morning.
Good luck all... and go Browns!
That said, even after the tweak, a short signal was generated on Friday afternoon. This gives me more confidence and I may add to my short position early Monday if we see some strength in the morning.
Good luck all... and go Browns!
Friday, November 5, 2010
Current market status: Healthy
Today's Signal: Sell/Short (yet again)
Commentary
QE2 is wiping the floor w/ my system. My system is tuned for trending, but requires at least a small amount of choppiness. Thrusts in any one direction can be a killer. Once all this exuberance dies down next week, hopefully it will come back into line. I'll post some stats this weekend on how this equity draw down compares to others in the past. A tidbit of hope... A co-worker who is notorious for selling bottoms and buying tops just bought into stocks today w/ his retirement account.
Today's Signal: Sell/Short (yet again)
Commentary
QE2 is wiping the floor w/ my system. My system is tuned for trending, but requires at least a small amount of choppiness. Thrusts in any one direction can be a killer. Once all this exuberance dies down next week, hopefully it will come back into line. I'll post some stats this weekend on how this equity draw down compares to others in the past. A tidbit of hope... A co-worker who is notorious for selling bottoms and buying tops just bought into stocks today w/ his retirement account.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Thursday thumping...
Current market status: Healthy
Today's Signal: Sell/Short
Commentary
Not a pleasant day to be short, to say the least. FWIW, the system produced another short signal at the close. But adding more shorts here would be nuts. There appears little doubt we are going higher, possibly much higher. Being short right now, when everyone is so bullish is a good thought, but it's way too early after such a huge upside breakout.
Today's Signal: Sell/Short
Commentary
Not a pleasant day to be short, to say the least. FWIW, the system produced another short signal at the close. But adding more shorts here would be nuts. There appears little doubt we are going higher, possibly much higher. Being short right now, when everyone is so bullish is a good thought, but it's way too early after such a huge upside breakout.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Hold
Current market status: Healthy
Today's Signal: Hold
Last trade: Sell/Short (11/2/10)
Commentary
Bullish sentiment has to be high after today. Would like to see a pullback or correction of some kind now that QE2 is official - and before everything shoots to the moon in an inflationary environment. Poor Dollar. Is gas going back to 4 bucks? Thanks Ben, that'll do wonders for the economy.
Today's Signal: Hold
Last trade: Sell/Short (11/2/10)
Commentary
Bullish sentiment has to be high after today. Would like to see a pullback or correction of some kind now that QE2 is official - and before everything shoots to the moon in an inflationary environment. Poor Dollar. Is gas going back to 4 bucks? Thanks Ben, that'll do wonders for the economy.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Sell short and Oct. Stats
Current market status: Healthy
Latest trade: Sell/Short (11/2/10)
Commentary
Ok, first the good. The long trade from Oct 26 turned out to be positive after spending several days in the red. I got the big up day that I wanted... But now the bad. I was a tad bit discouraged to see the ES take out 1193 after the close. Next stop could be 1205+. Tomorrow should be volatile, especially starting at 2pm. Enjoy the action! Good luck and good evening. -JTrader
October Stats
8 Trades - 6 winners,
2 losers (75%)
% Gain/Loss: +34.31%**
**Basis TNA. Excludes fees, slippage, taxes, etc.
Trades
Date - Signal - TNA
Sep 27 - Long - 45.73
Oct 01 - Short - 47.82
Oct 04 - Long - 45.91
Oct 05 - Hold
Oct 06 - Hold
Oct 07 - Hold
Oct 08 - Short - 50.79*
Oct 11 - Hold
Oct 12 - Long - 51.34
Oct 13 - Hold
Oct 14 - Hold
Oct 15 - Hold
Oct 18 - Short - 54.47
Oct 19 - Long - 50.32
Oct 20 - Short - 52.57
Oct 21 - Hold
Oct 22 - Short
Oct 25 - Hold
Oct 26 - Long - 53.61
*These signals changed to "hold" following the recent tweak to incorporate thrusts.
Latest trade: Sell/Short (11/2/10)
Commentary
Ok, first the good. The long trade from Oct 26 turned out to be positive after spending several days in the red. I got the big up day that I wanted... But now the bad. I was a tad bit discouraged to see the ES take out 1193 after the close. Next stop could be 1205+. Tomorrow should be volatile, especially starting at 2pm. Enjoy the action! Good luck and good evening. -JTrader
October Stats
8 Trades - 6 winners,
2 losers (75%)
% Gain/Loss: +34.31%**
**Basis TNA. Excludes fees, slippage, taxes, etc.
Trades
Date - Signal - TNA
Sep 27 - Long - 45.73
Oct 01 - Short - 47.82
Oct 04 - Long - 45.91
Oct 05 - Hold
Oct 06 - Hold
Oct 07 - Hold
Oct 08 - Short - 50.79*
Oct 11 - Hold
Oct 12 - Long - 51.34
Oct 13 - Hold
Oct 14 - Hold
Oct 15 - Hold
Oct 18 - Short - 54.47
Oct 19 - Long - 50.32
Oct 20 - Short - 52.57
Oct 21 - Hold
Oct 22 - Short
Oct 25 - Hold
Oct 26 - Long - 53.61
*These signals changed to "hold" following the recent tweak to incorporate thrusts.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Another Hold Signal
Current market status: Healthy
Latest signal: Buy/Long (generated 10/26/10)
Commentary
At the close, both the SPY and VIX were up again (!) which is 5 of the past 6 sessions. I don't have stats on it, but that has to be pretty rare. Most indices had outside days today also - and the bearish evidence is starting to stack up. My system showed a sell this morning and had me licking my chops. Then it went neutral by late morning and nearly generated a "buy" at the close. I ended up adding to my long position, but my position is still quite small due to the increased volatility. I'm hoping for a big white candle soon and a short signal so I can pounce.
Latest signal: Buy/Long (generated 10/26/10)
Commentary
At the close, both the SPY and VIX were up again (!) which is 5 of the past 6 sessions. I don't have stats on it, but that has to be pretty rare. Most indices had outside days today also - and the bearish evidence is starting to stack up. My system showed a sell this morning and had me licking my chops. Then it went neutral by late morning and nearly generated a "buy" at the close. I ended up adding to my long position, but my position is still quite small due to the increased volatility. I'm hoping for a big white candle soon and a short signal so I can pounce.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)