tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post4299994512759158167..comments2023-10-31T11:45:19.266-04:00Comments on J-Trader's Market Analysis: Final 2011 StatsJ-Traderhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15961748425161624017noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-57254969392593065592012-01-03T10:59:51.605-05:002012-01-03T10:59:51.605-05:00I'm sitting on the sidelines until the close a...I'm sitting on the sidelines until the close at which point I will most likely be going short. I don't expect a huge sell off today after such a violent gap up, so a buy signal is probably off the table.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04954636315935734354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-71282260199024082072012-01-03T09:58:24.185-05:002012-01-03T09:58:24.185-05:00Thanks for the information, J-Trader.
Like you, I...Thanks for the information, J-Trader.<br /><br />Like you, I didn't follow the signal last week. Another lesson on not over-thinking systems. I'd be interested to know what you plan on doing (going long now or waiting for a pullback that might never come).Algyroshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07237694624266634982noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-14837233596940209162012-01-03T09:50:34.845-05:002012-01-03T09:50:34.845-05:00It goes back to 2008 but I used 2008-2010 data to ...It goes back to 2008 but I used 2008-2010 data to build the system so returns those years benefit from data mining/curve fitting. In addition, other indicators I use go back only a few years as well. There are too many unknowns to go farther back, so my system will just have to keep proving itself in the present. So far, it's doing a fine job. I don't plan on going anywhere, so my hope is to build up years worth of results. <br /><br />Half stops on long trades simply use a recent swing low. I don't see why TNA price wouldn't work.<br />Things are a bit more complicated if the system is short in an unhealthy market as the flip to healthy isn't as straight forward. <br /><br />Michele, do you mean just putting a line similar to that in each of my posts? Sorry, I'm still not sure how that stuff works...I'm trying to learn though.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04954636315935734354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-50438556355283749732012-01-02T18:54:24.998-05:002012-01-02T18:54:24.998-05:00One more thing: thanks for posting the .50 stop l...One more thing: thanks for posting the .50 stop loss. However, it would be much more useful if you could translate that into TNA.Algyroshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07237694624266634982noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-38811104548628318332012-01-02T17:25:37.375-05:002012-01-02T17:25:37.375-05:00"When you love trading and enjoy researching,..."When you love trading and enjoy researching, it's difficult to turn the computer on at 3:45pm, get the signal, place the trade, then turn the computer off for another 24 hrs."<br /><br />It's difficult for a person, but it's real easy for a computer. I'd like to write a program that takes your signals and places the trades automatically.<br /><br />Do you think you could come up with some simple standardized format for your calls (for example, "BUY TNA 30.50 LIMIT") that would be easy for a machine to parse? I think it would be fun to try this out.Michelehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11446439300213187649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-78933669816027628982012-01-02T15:07:14.015-05:002012-01-02T15:07:14.015-05:00I'd be especially interested to see how your s...I'd be especially interested to see how your system handled bear markets, like in 2008.Algyroshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07237694624266634982noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-74899476896701573392012-01-02T13:23:13.258-05:002012-01-02T13:23:13.258-05:00I was wondering if you had the ability to backtest...I was wondering if you had the ability to backtest your system further back than 2010? I know that TNA didn't exist ten years ago, but SPY did and one could extrapolate returns. It would be an interesting way to see how the system behaves in different kinds of markets.Algyroshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07237694624266634982noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-78691765988615140782012-01-02T10:15:23.621-05:002012-01-02T10:15:23.621-05:00About the same time. Although it really just depe...About the same time. Although it really just depends on the amount of intraday volatility. Big market swings in the last hour of trading can (and often do) throw me for a loop.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04954636315935734354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-45654830353170623002012-01-02T09:56:23.805-05:002012-01-02T09:56:23.805-05:00J=Trader,
Do the strong signals get generated at t...J=Trader,<br />Do the strong signals get generated at the same time as the weak signals? In other words, do you know about strong signals earlier than weak signals, or do they materialize at the same time?Algyroshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07237694624266634982noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-89315311239186962962012-01-02T09:52:13.367-05:002012-01-02T09:52:13.367-05:00Jim, thanks, and my pleasure...I too am looking fo...Jim, thanks, and my pleasure...I too am looking forward to trading 2012. If nothing else, these stats have hammered home the fact that I should not be deviating from my system... ever. :)<br /><br />golfdude, <br />Stop loss section has been added. Good suggestion. <br /><br />I will post all my signals from 2011 and 2010 on one page so you can easily compare to the Indian market. You'll just have to remove TNA values and plug in the ETF/index of your choice. Thanks.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04954636315935734354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-34624783670263871162012-01-02T09:25:10.856-05:002012-01-02T09:25:10.856-05:00J-trader
Thanks for the very complete analysis and...J-trader<br />Thanks for the very complete analysis and statistics.<br />Your information and data are impressive and well support your trading methodology. <br />Looking forward to strong results in 2012!jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17577424698688298166noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-4192846254841736482012-01-02T05:16:27.021-05:002012-01-02T05:16:27.021-05:00J...why not start posting a SL column on the left ...J...why not start posting a SL column on the left side ?golfdudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082609997941250721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-26654129574567138402012-01-02T05:03:29.220-05:002012-01-02T05:03:29.220-05:00J...thanks for the analysis. That is awesome stuff...J...thanks for the analysis. That is awesome stuff. Will follow your trades this month and let you know. Also, I had asked you about the Indian market. Can you share your spreadsheet so that I can try to incorporate Indian market numbers ( index and VIX ) and see how it works ? I will only paper trade and also back test for a few months. My personal email is padysrini@gmail.com. <br /><br />Thanksgolfdudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03082609997941250721noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-63917842390227664352012-01-01T19:26:24.398-05:002012-01-01T19:26:24.398-05:00J-trader, could you post the dates that your syste...J-trader, could you post the dates that your system switched from Healthy to Unhealthy and Unhealthy to Healthy, for all of 2011? Thanks.<br /><br />ChuckAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-63878561516427793272012-01-01T18:22:47.821-05:002012-01-01T18:22:47.821-05:00That's some pretty heady stuff, J-Trader. I&#...That's some pretty heady stuff, J-Trader. I'm glad I have an extra day this weekend to digest it all.<br /><br />Thank you very much for all your hard work.Algyroshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07237694624266634982noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-72419039819770017352012-01-01T14:51:52.645-05:002012-01-01T14:51:52.645-05:00Thanks for the words of wisdom Algyros.
straubw0...Thanks for the words of wisdom Algyros. <br /><br />straubw07, Thank you for reminding me about strong signals. I'll take a look, probably on Monday. <br />For you second question, I just answered that in the post. See the section titled All-in on the first signal...Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04954636315935734354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-16957872380728321072012-01-01T14:38:36.384-05:002012-01-01T14:38:36.384-05:00I think that JTrader is onto something very import...I think that JTrader is onto something very important. There are all kinds of system out there, some, like his, excellent, some good, some okay, etc. But for a system to work, a trader has to turn off that little voice saying not to take the current call because of a million different reasons. What happens is that every once in a while the little voice is right and then one keeps listening and going against the system. But, in the end, a good system will, in its methodical and emotionless way, outperform 99% of discretionary traders. <br /><br />So, even though it's hard, it's important to give a system a chance by following it, especially when the little voice is saying not to. If, after a while, the system's equity curve starts to look terrible, then you can move on. But you shouldn't mess with a system until you've given it a chance to do its thing unencumbered by second-guesses.Algyroshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07237694624266634982noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-23872459619594826522012-01-01T14:34:36.359-05:002012-01-01T14:34:36.359-05:00What were stats for strong buys and sells? Also w...What were stats for strong buys and sells? Also what would results be if only used the first 50 percent buy and not averaged in on the second?straubw07https://www.blogger.com/profile/02224193436139480054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-38339739210959742482012-01-01T10:15:32.015-05:002012-01-01T10:15:32.015-05:00Thanks, Michele! Happy New Year to you also.
I do...Thanks, Michele! Happy New Year to you also.<br /><br />I don't want to mislead anyone here into thinking I actually made 51% gains in my real trading account. Sure, I could have if I followed my system blindly to the letter. I didn't quite have that kind of discipline in 2011. My resolution for 2012 is to do a better job of that.<br /><br />The problem with that is it requires you to shut everything and everyone off completely. Reading and researching will only serve to bias one's trading, something that will severely hamper your willingness to follow a system blindly.<br /><br />When you love trading and enjoy researching, it's difficult to turn the computer on at 3:45pm, get the signal, place the trade, then turn the computer off for another 24 hrs. But that's what I believe you have to do to follow my system or anyone else's.<br /><br />That is going to be a challenge for me.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04954636315935734354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-32996183363329649922012-01-01T09:51:28.891-05:002012-01-01T09:51:28.891-05:00xtrends,
100% is whatever you are willing to ris...xtrends, <br /><br />100% is whatever you are willing to risk. 50% is just half that amount. I start each position as a half position just in case I don't hit the top or bottom of a move, leaving plenty in reserve to average in at a better price if the opportunity presents itself. <br /><br />If you want to follow my system, take a comfortable amount in your account to allocate toward my signals, whether it's 1,000 or 100,000 doesn't matter. When I get a signal, use half of that amount, and if I get another signal, use the rest. <br /><br />Rolling the gains from one trade into the next will compound your returns and help your money grow faster.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04954636315935734354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-38772305826026411742011-12-31T20:04:01.635-05:002011-12-31T20:04:01.635-05:0050% or 100%, those are impressive numbers indeed. ...50% or 100%, those are impressive numbers indeed. You beat both my real returns and my "fantasy" ES trading returns. Good job! I think in 2012 I'll start trading your system :-)<br /><br />And Happy New Year!Michelehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11446439300213187649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-12575093520831441322011-12-31T15:43:47.234-05:002011-12-31T15:43:47.234-05:00what is considered to be a full or 50% position. I...what is considered to be a full or 50% position. Is the full position 100% of the money available to invest or a smaller % of the total I have to invest?xtrendshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11113231651167698000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-24915293537787461712011-12-31T15:27:27.465-05:002011-12-31T15:27:27.465-05:00Ok, that's enough for today. Tomorrow, I will ...Ok, that's enough for today. Tomorrow, I will post the fun stats including the all-in/all-out results and the "what if I used a stop loss in August" results.<br /><br />Both will be interesting.<br /><br />If there are any other stats you'd like to see, actual or hypothetical, let me know and I'll try to accommodate.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04954636315935734354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-68257365812953487082011-12-31T13:52:53.064-05:002011-12-31T13:52:53.064-05:00The stats are very interesting.
It would indeed...The stats are very interesting. <br /><br />It would indeed be nice to see how the system did with an all-in or all-out strategy. <br /><br />Take care and thanks.Algyroshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07237694624266634982noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6839599187534986560.post-14205659986387020882011-12-31T12:40:20.508-05:002011-12-31T12:40:20.508-05:00As you were typing that question, I was typing the...As you were typing that question, I was typing the answer above... :)<br /><br />When I get finished with all the stats, I'm going to investigate how the results would've varied with an all or nothing strategy.<br /><br />An all-in or all-out strategy sure would make calculating these stats much simpler!Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04954636315935734354noreply@blogger.com