Friday, November 30, 2012

JTS covers... JT Comp back to 50% short.

Well that was short and sweet. (Actually, not that sweet..) The JT Comp 100% short signal is ending today just as soon as it started. The reason is the JTS is covering its short position today. It's going back to cash, but not going long. The CCI will hold out for more weakness before exiting. Thus, the JT Comp is moving back to 50% TZA and 50% cash position for the weekend. I too will scale back my shorts. I plan on putting together a weekend post featuring a strategy that only triggers on a 100% JT Composite position, and ignores 50% positions. It should be interesting - so heads up for that. Have a good one! J

Archiving Nov Signals...
Date JT CompositeXIV/TNAJ-TraderCCI
Oct 24 Half-Long XIV 15.93/56.55CashLong
Nov 1 Half-Short TNA 17.33/59.22HoldShort
Nov 2 Half-Short TNA HoldHold
Nov 5 Half-Long XIV 16.57/57.60HoldLong
Nov 6 Short TNA 17.14/58.79ShortShort
Nov 7 Half-Long XIV 15.80/54.47CoverLong
Nov 8 Long XIV 15.66/52.23LongHold
Nov 9 Long XIV HoldHold
Nov 12 Long XIV HoldHold
Nov 13 Long XIV HoldHold
Nov 14 Long XIV HoldHold
Nov 15 Long XIV HoldLong
Nov 16 Long XIV HoldHold
Nov 19 Cash18.08/51.82 SellSell
Nov 20 Half-Short TNA18.37/52.16HoldShort
Nov 21 Half-Short TNAHoldHold
Nov 22 Closed Happy Turkey Day!
Nov 23 Half-Short TNAHalf-Day HoldHold
Nov 26 Half-Short TNAHoldHold
Nov 27 Half-Short TNAHoldHold
Nov 28 Half-Short TNAHoldShort
Nov 29 Short TNA19.58/58.11ShortHold
Nov 30 Half-Short TNA19.22/57.72CoverHold

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Strong short signal, if...

If SPY closes 141.92 or higher, the JTS will go short on the close. This would finally put the JT Comp all-in short and would be the trigger for me to get even more aggressive. I am ~65% short already as of yesterday, so I will be going 90% short (actually long TZA) if this short signal pans out. According to Overnight Edges, a good chance of a gap down tomorrow. That would be a step in the right direction. Take it easy, and good luck all! J

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

JT Comp holding but I'm adding shorts...

JTS is holding in cash, but CCI is producing another short signal. The particular trigger for today's short signal is a 1-day negative divergence between SPY and the CCI indicator. That is to say, SPY is higher than yesterday but the CCI is lower. It's pretty risky here, but I'm going to add to my short position with another lot of TZA on the close. Thx and take it easy!

Tuesday, November 27, 2012


I suppose the market action lately can be viewed 2 ways depending on your perspective. We are either consolidating before another move higher, or we are stalling at resistance before heading down again... Flip a coin. I'm 51% sure we're about to see a pullback over the next few days. My systems are holding their current positions. I will continue to follow. Take it easy.

Monday, November 26, 2012

Hold signals.

First off, I finally dumped my AAPL (which was sort of used as a hedge) at 588. It was a 20pt gain but it certainly tested my patience when it was flirting with 500 a few weeks back. I think it will retest that level which is why I sold it. As for the systems, nothing new is popping up today. All systems will hold their current positions, thus I remain 50% short via TZA. Thanks for reading. Hope your weekend went well.

Friday, November 23, 2012

Hold signals.

The CCI will remain short, but the JTS will stay in cash. This keeps the JT Comp (and me) 50% short TNA. Because the JTS is not giving a short signal, I will not add to my TZA. I will continue to hold my AAPL as well. Thanks and have a good weekend!

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Hold signals.

Both systems will hold their current positions keeping the JT Comp 50% short TNA and 50% cash. I'm increasing my short position a bit today because when combined with my AAPL position, I'm almost flat (assuming TZA and AAPL move equally in opposite directions, I know - not a great assumption). Anyway, I'm increasing to 50% TZA on the close. I believe Friday is a shortened day, so be on the lookout for an early signal. Thanks and Happy Thanksgiving. I'm thankful for my health and family! God Bless!

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

CCI Short.

The JT Composite system will move to 50% short TNA today as the CCI fires off a short signal. The JTS will remain cash. Something to watch...the JTS could flip to healthy mode if we close green today, tomorrow, or Friday. This is an intermediate signal that basically means long plays are relatively safe while shorting carries more risk. I use it strictly as a background indicator inside the JTS. It could also serve as a stop loss on a JTS short position, but with no current short position it's moot. I will take a 25% long TZA position on the close and keep my 25% long AAPL (non-system trade) position as well. I will not get serious about shorting until after the holiday. See you tomorrow. Thanks!

Monday, November 19, 2012


All systems are selling XIV and will head to the sidelines/cash. Thanks!

UPDATE: To clear up any confusion since I'm not trading TNA when there is contango in the vix futures, I've added XIV's price to the system tracker pane on the left. I'm not fond of the cluttered look, but hopefully we'll all adjust. I've received questions why I'm tracking TNA when I'm not even trading it. Problem solved.

Taking profits.

I try to stick by my rule that dictates I sell a trade if it earns me over 10% in a short amount of time. It's an unwritten rule that prevents me from letting greed take over. So with that, I'm selling all my XIV here. I'll be back with the official signal this afternoon. Thanks and congrats to all system followers.... J

Friday, November 16, 2012

Hold confirmed.

JTS, CCI, and JT Comp will all remain 100% long. Time to forget about the market and enjoy the weekend. Take care.

Thursday, November 15, 2012


All systems remain long. I'm still not quite interested in adding to my long position yet. It will require a spike in the VIX before I'm ready. The lack of fear seems to be what is missing, which basically means I think we are going lower in the short term. Because of the weakness in the VIX, at least our XIV position is holding up well... See ya tomorrow. J

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Hold signals.

All systems will continue to hold their long positions. I will too, but I admit this doesn't look good... Thanks, J.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012


Nothing new today. All systems remain long. Thank goodness for xiv and contango.

Monday, November 12, 2012

All systems holding longs.

The JT Comp will continue to hold the 100% long XIV position.  I have been considering all afternoon whether I should lock in some XIV profits.  This seems like such a nice gift considering the market is barely up, or even down in some cases (small caps).   I've decided against taking profits here, because I've learned over the years that what feels right is usually wrong, and what feels wrong is usually right.  It feels right taking profits here, so I'm going to hold off for at least another day and see what happens.  Therefore, I'll remain 50% long XIV, 25% long AAPL (non-system trade) and 25% cash.

Take care!

Friday, November 9, 2012

Hold signals.

All systems hold their long positions.  Judging by the weakness in the VIX there appears to be little fear in this market.  That's a little bothersome considering the damage that has been done the past few days.  I will continue to hold 50% long XIV and 25% long AAPL over the weekend.  See you all Monday. Thanks for reading.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Unhealthy buy signal.

The JTS is giving an unhealthy buy signal.  The CCI system will remain long with a hold signal.  This places the JT Comp 100% long.   I will be adding to my XIV position on the close, taking my long position up to 75%.   Will save the rest in case the market continues to struggle.


Wednesday, November 7, 2012

And back to long...

The CCI system will go long once again - its third flip in as many days.  The JTS, now unhealthy again, will cover the short position and move to cash.  With 1 system long and the other in cash, the JT Composite moves to 50% long XIV.  I'm selling my TZA on the close and purchasing another 33% position in XIV.  I would go 50% XIV today, but I made a decent sized AAPL purchase earlier so I'm already going to be about 50% long between the 2. 

Thanks!  And for those that went short yesterday, congrats on the big win!


Tuesday, November 6, 2012

100% Short!

Despite the JTS flipping to healthy mode today, I am getting a healthy short signal. The CCI is also flipping to short. This places the JT Composite all-in short. Very surprising. I just exited my XIV position for a nice gain. With contango still in place, I will be using TZA rather than VXX. Due to the possibility of a huge move overnight due to election results, I'm starting with a relatively small short position with just 33% of my capital. I will add shorts in the morning if we gap up. Thanks and good luck to us!

Monday, November 5, 2012

JT Comp moves to 50% long XIV.

The CCI is flipping signs, moving from short to long (barely). Meanwhile, the JTS still refuses to make a move and remains in cash. This combo generates a 50% long XIV and 50% cash position for the JT Comp. I will reluctantly follow, but not with 50% of my capital. I will take a 1/3rd long XIV position into tomorrow. Something else to note: if SPY closes green again tomorrow, the JTS will flip back to healthy mode and could result in a buy signal as early as Wednesday. Thanks for reading!

Intraday Update: Cash

Just a quick heads up, I exited my TZA position and I'm back to cash. Will be back around the close with the system signals... Thanks, J

Saturday, November 3, 2012

Weekend Post: Targets and Stats

I got excited Friday morning when I saw SPY was going to open right at it's 50 day MA. This combined with that fact that Employment days that gap up big usually finish lower was enough to convince me to purchase more TZA.  I purchased on the open at TZA 15 and turned the computer off for the next few hours as my wife and I left the house to run errands.  Obviously I was pleasantly surprised to come home and see what had transpired.

Even if you didn't add to your short position Fri morning, the JT Comp has you well in the black if you followed the signal Thursday. 

Cobra has posted an interesting stat on his subscriber site.  Out of respect to Cobra, I won't go into details, but I will tell you that there was a set-up that triggered Friday that lead to a higher close the following trading day 18 out of the past 18 times!   A dead cat bounce so to speak.   This may not exactly bode well for our short position.  If one were to get cute (which I probably will) they might exit the short position on any continued weakness Monday morning.  

If (or when) I exit the short position, I will look to re-enter TZA (hopefully at a better price) for the next dip which I expect will take us to the 200 day at 1380.  That is the plan.  I am guessing any bounce Monday will be shorted by the JTS.  We'll see.  Here's an update of the chart I posted 10/20.

Stats have been posted through Friday Nov 2nd.  All systems made between 5-7% in October and all but the JTS are off to a great start this month.  

That's it, thanks for reading and enjoy the rest of the weekend. See you Monday.

Friday, November 2, 2012

Holding shorts.

The JTS will remain cash but the CCI is staying short. The jt comp is 50% short over the weekend. I am now 75% as I purchased some more tza on the open. I did this simply because the SPX hit my predetermined target...1434. Thanks and have a great weekend!

Thursday, November 1, 2012

CCI Short. JT Comp 50% short.

JTS is close to a short signal, but not quite.  It will remain cash.  CCI however will flip from long to short today.  This places the JT Comp 50% short TNA. 

As many of you know, CCI rules can be used on any stock or ETF.  It's comforting to see a solid buy signal today on TZA.

I'm moving to a 50% long TZA position while selling my XIV for a nice profit.  My cautious 25% position turned out to be the wrong move.  Remind me in the future when I'm feeling cautious to ignore my feelings. ;) 

If you followed the XIV trade, congrats!!!!  And good luck on the new short trade.  See you tomorrow.