Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Composite sidelined.

Both models will hold their respective (opposite) positions keeping the Composite system sidelined in cash. Thanks!

July Trades

JT CompositeTNAJ-TraderCCI
Jun 29
Jul 2
Jul 3
Jul 4

Jul 5
Jul 6
Jul 9
Jul 10
Jul 11
Jul 12
Jul 13
Jul 16
Jul 17
Jul 18
Jul 19
Jul 20
Jul 23
Jul 24
Jul 25
Jul 26 Cash49.37HoldShort
Jul 27 Short53.06ShortShort
Jul 30
Jul 31

Monday, July 30, 2012

JTS Buy If...

JT System is producing a buy signal if SPY Closes 138.42 or higher. CCI will remain on a short signal regardless. JT Comp will go to cash if this is the case. The JTS will hold the short if SPY 138.41 or lower and then the Comp would remain 100% short.


Friday, July 27, 2012

Strong short signal...

The JTS is producing a strong short signal. CCI is producing a 2nd short signal. This puts the JT Composite system all-in short. I won't be that aggressive, but I'll take about a ~50% position in TZA leaving some powder dry just in case we see further gains heading into the 8/1 Jackson Hole meeting. See ya next week. Have a good one!

Thursday, July 26, 2012

JT Comp back to cash...

JTS is holding the long position, but the CCI is going short today (premature again?)... This sends the Composite System back to all cash. I am back to cash already as my XIV position hit my sell limit order a few mins ago. A 10% gain within a few days is my magic number...an automatic sell. Just wish I would've had more than a 1/3 position...but I'll take it. In @ 11.15, out @ 12.26. Good stuff!

See ya tomorrow.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Holding longs.

The JTS is flirting with a sell signal, but it's not going to make it. So, we are looking at all 3 systems remaining long. Take care.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

All systems remain long...

JTS, CCI, and JT Comp remain 100% long. I took a 1/3rd position in XIV this afternoon and will add to it tomorrow should we see more weakness. I'm expecting a rally to finish out this month, likely lasting into early August. Thanks!

Monday, July 23, 2012

Composite going 100% long.

After about a month of less than stellar performance, the CCI system finally proved its worth by holding onto the short position over the weekend. What pleases me even more is the fact I chose to hold onto a few shares of TZA believing that the CCI system was due for a win! I cashed out on the open and have been sitting in cash all day.

I'm thinking we'll see more downside over the next few days. However, now both my systems are generating long signals (the CCI is flipping to a "buy" today) and this will put the JT Composite system all-in long. No way do I have the guts to go 100% long today, but I may buy a few shares of TNA on the close. I still think there will be better prices tomorrow or Wednesday. Then again, what do I know...

The JTS, with its premature buy signal Friday, is still hanging above its half-stop loss of SPY 132.60, which is simply the swing low of 7/12/12. I would like to see us get closer to that value before I start loading up heavily on longs. Don't ask what happens to the Composite if JTS gets half stopped, because the answer is I don't know. When I created the JT Composite system and ran the stats, I completely ignored JTS stops. The thinking was that the CCI "checks and balances" the JTS, thus lessening the need for stops. So, in theory the JT Comp would stay 100% long in the event the JTS gets half stopped. I'll clarify this futher if/when we breach the 7/12 low.

Sorry for the length... Thanks for reading!

Friday, July 20, 2012

Composite back to cash...

JTS is going long here, while the CCI system is remaining short. This sends the JT Comp back to an all cash position. Nice day today. We'll see which system is right next week. See ya then!

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Holding shorts ...

All 3 systems will maintain their short positions. Thx.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

JTS - Short if...

The JTS (and as a result, the JT Composite also) will take a 100% short position if SPY closes 137.29 or higher. Anything below 137.29 will keep the JTS in cash and the Composite just 50% short. Thanks!

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

CCI going short...

The CCI system will go short if SPY closes above 135.80. The JTS will remain in cash with another hold signal. This combination moves the JT Comp system to 50% short. Have a good one.


Monday, July 16, 2012

Holding cash...

Both models will continue to stand aside until there is a more defined edge. Right now it seems the market could break in either direction. The Composite system remains 100% cash.

Friday, July 13, 2012

Composite back to cash...

The CCI system is detecting an elevated level of risk and is dumping its long position as a precautionary measure. The JTS will remain on the sidelines with a hold signal. With both models out of the market, the JT Composite system is headed back to cash on the close today. The profit from this trade is a bit underwhelming though better than the alternative. Have a good weekend all! See ya back here Monday.

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Half long...

The composite system will remain half long/half cash today. Both the JTS and CCI are producing hold signals. We were on pace for a strong JTS buy signal today until the persistent afternoon rally -- now there is too much risk and it will remain sidelined.

Stats have been updated. The good old JTS has taken the lead back.

See ya tomorrow!

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Composite remains half long...

CCI has moved below zero which is unofficially a solid buy signal when the 21day MA is above zero. However, the JTS refuses to offer a buy signal again today, so the JTComposite System will remain just half long TNA. Despite this, I added to my long position on today's intraday dip as I am expecting a bounce in the coming days. Evidence is mounting. Thanks for reading...

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Composite going half long...

The JTS is finally covering its short position, although it is NOT going long yet. This is interesting that its not going long on a big down day in a healthy market. I'm not sure what to make of this except there may be more downside ahead. I mentioned SPX 1325 to 1330 should be strong gap support.

The CCI will maintain its long position. The fact that JTS is heading to the sidelines combined with CCI's long will put the JT Comp system half in the market today on the close.


Monday, July 9, 2012

Composite staying put...

There will be no signal changes today. Each system will hold their respective position, keeping the Composite parked in cash for at least one more day. See ya tomorrow!

Friday, July 6, 2012

Composite: Going to cash!

The JTS will hold the short position, while the CCI will flip back to long... With the 2 systems out of phase, this will put the JT Composite back to cash mode for the weekend...closing out all shorts and heading to the sidelines. Thanks and have a good weekend.


As our family vacation comes to a close, today is extra sweet as the stock market is finally behaving. :) We capped off the vaca with 18 holes in the TN mountains. Whether golf is a "good walk ruined" is debatable, but today was a definitely a good day on the links for me.

Both systems are going long today. That is, barring an extraordinary rally here in the final hour. I will update confirmed signals prior to the close. Thanks.

Thursday, July 5, 2012

Hold shorts.

The composite system will hold the 100% short position. JTS and CCI are both generating hold signals keeping them short. Thanks!

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Short if...

If SPY closes over 137.01 the JTS goes short and the composite goes 100% short. Thx and happy 4th!

Monday, July 2, 2012

Hold signals.

The CCI is producing a 2nd short signal but the JTS will remain sidelined in cash. This will keep the composite system just 50% short. Thanks.