Monday, April 30, 2012

Another hold signal.

Hold signal is confirmed today. My system is expecting more downside action in the short term. Thanks!!!

Archive time...April Trades

Mar 28
Apr 2
Apr 3
Apr 4
Apr 5
Apr 6

Apr 9
Hold / Half Stop
Apr 10
Apr 11
Apr 12
Apr 13
Apr 16Hold
Apr 17
Apr 18
Apr 19
Apr 20
Hold / Half Stop56.11
Apr 23
Apr 24
Apr 25
Apr 26
Apr 27
Apr 30

Friday, April 27, 2012

Hold confirmed.

First off, for those of you who expected to receive this post in your email but did not, please check your inbox or spam folder for a confirmation email from me. Some of you may have received 2 confirmation emails. You'll need to click the link in the 2nd one.

Today was obviously disappointing for the short position. I was very close to deviating and covering my shorts during the morning dip, but I ultimately refrained and now regret it. Anyway with a hold signal today, we'll have to wait and see what next Monday brings. I suppose a test of the recent highs is probably in order... I do find some peace in this chart though. It still looks bearish.

Have a good weekend!

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Live Email Test #1

1130pm ET: Ok, I'm all caught up. If you never received a confirmation email, either check your spam folder or contact me. I will generate another test post in the morning. Everything should be fine now though. Peace and good night!
11pm ET: Minor snag. Gmail only allows 20 addresses for auto forwarding. I'm setting up more accounts. I can create up to 10 gmail accounts as that is how many I can forward to automatically from this site. That gives me an upper limit of 200 emails. I'm nowhere near that yet, but someday I supposed we could reach it... Anyway, heads up, some of you are going to get another confirmation email from and/or, etc.
Here we go, this is the first test in which everyone who has already "confirmed" should receive. Please don't "reply all" to this message b/c I believe that will send your reply to everyone on the list. Any questions, reply directly to me at jtrader21 at gmail, or alternatively just post a comment on the site. Again, feel free to state whether you received a notification in the Comments section below.

Thanks (and go Bears)!

PS Sorry I couldn't reply personally to all your emails, but a big thank you for all the kind words!!!!

Email Test

Almost everyone should've received a confirmation email giving permission to forward you emails. If you didn't receive one, the request was blocked by your account. I will resubmit in a little bit and if it still doesn't work, I will contact you personally if I haven't already done so. No one should've received a test notification yet... only when I make a new post... which should be in the next 30 mins. (Currently 630pm ET)


Test. If this works, I will begin entering all your emails. You'll get a confirmation email asking to confirm. Once you confirm, these test posts will begin showing up in your inbox as well...hopefully. :)

Short confirmed.

The short signal was confirmed. It was a close one as it came down to the final 30 seconds. So, for those who missed it (like myself), trading after-hours or waiting until tomorrow are always reasonable options. Obviously those who trade futures contracts are not impacted by such close calls. I've recently been trading after-hours and pre-market using my broker's website and have found it rewarding. Fees and commissions, and the whole ordering process are identical to market hours, save for having to use limit orders...which is no big deal.

Again, if you'd like email notifications of my posts, please see the message below. Thanks all!

The system is giving a strong short signal if SPY closes 140.08 or higher. Otherwise, it will remain 100% cash with a hold signal.

Thanks to those who've responded to my previous email. I haven't added anyone, so no need to look for a notification yet. :) I will let you know.

Email Notifications (Test)

There has been demand lately for email notifications whenever I make a new post. This makes sense as my twitter messages are generally reserved for the model signals around 350pm ET, but I will occasionally post pertinent information (both system related and non-system related) on the website much earlier in the trading day.

Up until yesterday, I was under the impression that I could auto-email a limited number of addresses (10 to be exact). With roughly 2000 hits a day, this allowance was a bit underwhelming. However, an astute reader suggested I set up a dedicated email address and use an "auto-forwarding" feature, thus allowing me to email an unlimited number of addresses.

I've gone through those steps and I'm ready to start accepting email addys. This post also serves as the first of probably many posts for testing purposes. Be prepared to see several more "test" posts. :) You can comment here with your email addy for now, but I assure you after several days this message will fall off the front page and I will likely forget about it. So please try to email me directly with your email address if you'd like email notifications. You can send it to jtrader21 at


On track for a strong short signal.

If we keep these gains into the close, the system will go short.  I'll post some numbers prior to the close. 

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Hold signal. 100% Cash.

My system is thinking there may be more on the upside tomorrow but not enough odds to produce a buy signal.  So, we'll sit in cash for another day.  

One thing to mention is that my CCI rules are giving a short signal.  I'm not ready to take a short position yet but if tomorrow is up big, I will strongly consider it.  Until then, take it easy.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Sell signal.

Sell TNA longs if SPY closes positive (up/green) today. The system moves to the sidelines with the sell signal, which means there is no detectable edge in either direction.

Have a good one.


Monday, April 23, 2012

Buy confirmed.

Some quant studies I've seen today suggest we should see a 1-day bounce tomorrow.  My system supports that by giving a buy signal today.  The remainder of the short position will be closed and the system opens a 100% long TNA position. 

It won't take much to flip the market back to unhealthy mode... just a breach below SPY 135.76. Nice to have a relatively tight stop when the apparent downside risk is elevated.

See ya tomorrow.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Healthy & half-stop...

3:49pm: The system exits half the short position on the close if SPY closes 137.73 or higher. (Half stop loss rules are in effect associated with system flipping back to healthy status).  Otherwise, it remains 100% short.  
While I don't like it or agree with it, the system is flipping the status of the market back to "healthy" again.  For the purposes of my trading it doesn't matter what I agree with or believe, so I will be closing half of my short position just prior to the close today.  Of course, this could change if SPY takes a dive this afternoon and closes down on the day.  This scenario is very unlikely given the intraday pattern which suggests continued strength.

I will be content carrying the 50% short position into next week, as I believe another leg down to complete the bear flag target to around 1330 is just around the corner.  On the other hand, there is always a chance we go back up next week to test the highs.  In that case the stop loss will offer some protection here.

Have a good weekend.  I will report the official signal later today...

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Hold confirmed. Remaining short...

310pm: There will be no signal change today. The system is indicating there should be more downside action over the next few trading days.

My health indicator lines are still positive, so again tomorrow we'll have to watch out for a green SPY candle and possibly getting half stopped out. See ya then...

958am: The key thing to watch out for today is a green SPY daily candle. If SPY does in fact close in positive territory, the system exits half the short position on the close. The other half will continue to ride for the time being...

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Holding shorts.

The hold signal was confirmed. The system remains 100% short. SPY never had a chance to get anywhere near the buy signal. The VXX warning did not materialize as VIX closed the session in positive territory.

The market remains unhealthy, but barely... A green SPY candle tomorrow or possibly Friday will flip the system back to healthy mode. This would unfortunately stop out half the short position with another (partial) loss. I'm counting on this not happening.


If SPY closes below 138.07, the system exits the short position and opens a 100% long position in TNA. Otherwise, it is a hold signal keeping it short.

Right now I'm getting a VXX warning where VXX is up and VIX is down. This is short term bearish. But it won't be confirmed until the VIX settles at 4:15pm.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Short #2 confirmed.

A strong short signal is on tap for today. It's do-or-die time for the model. Either we begin a second leg down IMMEDIATELY or we'll flip back to healthy mode in the next day or two, stopping out half the short position. I am not thrilled by the model's performance this month. I won't be too quick to judge this trade since it's not finished yet, but it's not looking good. I am getting dismayed that nearly the entire year's profits are evaporating just in the span of a few weeks...

Take care and we'll see ya back here tomorrow.

Monday, April 16, 2012

Holding shorts.

4:05pm: Hold signal was confirmed. Have a good one.


If SPY closes 137.27 or higher, the system produces a cover signal. That kills the current short position on the close and sends the system to the sidelines. If we finish lower than 137.27, then we stay 100% short.

Good evening!

Friday, April 13, 2012

Hold signal confirmed.

For much of the day, my system was trying to generate a "cover" signal to exit the short position. Since 3pm, this has not been the case. We are going to get a hold signal with the system expecting further downside next week. So, I will be living dangerously holding my 100% short position over the weekend. Have a happy one!

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Sell signal confirmed.

The system remains 100% short. Sorry for any confusion.

Looking at the raw output, I'm getting a strong sell signal today. Interesting that it's not a short signal, though. I can't explain that. A sell signal has no bearing on our position since we are already short. The system remains 100% short.

I will post a chart of a classic "kiss of death" pattern and ask a simple question... does this look bullish to you?

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Short signal confirmed.

3:50p: It's coming down to the wire. A short signal (which means to sell remainder of long position and go 100% short) is confirmed if SPY closes 136.88 or higher.

Otherwise, sell longs and head to sidelines....

That's all for today. Good luck!


I'm sure someone will be asking, so here is what I've got today. :)

The system is posting a sell signal, but not a short at this point. Due to the extremely large losses suffered yesterday and the model's tendency to sell these large one-day rallies when the market is unhealthy, it appears we are unfortunately heading to the sidelines with a large loss. I can only hope for an extremely strong close today.

Because it's not a short signal, it might be indicating there is more upside the next 1-2 days. Certainly, a multi-day rally back up to 1380-1400 is not out of the question, but if you're following the model verbatim like me, it appears time to head to the sidelines and wait for the next signal.

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Hold confirmed.

I would like to think a bounce is coming, but at this point who knows... I remain 50% invested in TNA. I'm trying to remain positive and focus on the bright side that at least the half-stop loss rules did their job and limited losses. We'll see ya back here tomorrow.

The CCI System is a screaming buy signal right now, but it's been on a buy for several days, so again... who knows...

Monday, April 9, 2012

Unhealthy & Half Stop

3:45pm: As we flip to unhealthy mode today, the system exits half the long position on the close. The official unhealthy signal is a hold signal, which just means we'll hold the other half of the position in hopes of a bounce the next few days.

The system now goes into "short the rally" mode until or unless we flip back to healthy status...which is detailed right here.


9:30am: It's official, with SPY dipping below 138.55, half of the TNA position will be exited on the close today.

To get a clue of what might happen intraday, with SPY opening below daily S3 support at 138.37, if we manage to move above that level in the first 30 minutes, it substantially decreases the chance of a trend day down. Or, alternatively, if we fill half the gap in the first 60 minutes, it also indicates a better chance of a close higher than the open. Finally, if the range of the first hour breaks, the direction in which it breaks should signal the trend for the rest of the day. Those rules of thumb come from my old daytrading notes.

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Hold confirmed.

Staying 100% long over the weekend. Happy Easter!

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Hold confirmed.

The system remains 100% long TNA.

SPY 138.55 - Half stop

Just a reminder to watch the 3/23 SPY swing low of 138.55, which is the official half stop. If we get down that low, the system will exit half the long position on the close today. That would also flip the system to unhealthy mode, which should result in more sell and/or short signals going forward.

For the record, like I mentioned yesterday I am buying today's dip.

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

2nd buy signal.

A little damage done today, but nothing too serious. I'm getting another buy signal and I do have a bit of cash sitting on the sidelines which I'll be using soon to purchase more TNA. Doubt I will use any of it today because I sense a gap down tomorrow morning. If we do get the gap down, I will go all-in long. Don't get me wrong though, I am heavily long right now and today is not fun...

Looks like the CCI sell signal was the right call. Still have to find a way to mesh my 2 systems.

Have a good evening.

Monday, April 2, 2012

Hold confirmed, but... CCI Sell Signal.

The system will continue to hold the long position. There should be more upside in the days to come...

My unrelated, just-for-fun CCI System generated a sell signal. The astounding winning rate over 90% continues. The gain with this particular trade was well below average, but still respectable at 2.64% using my ETF of choice (TNA). For more info, refer to my post on March 29.

Market Health revisited.
With SPY hitting a new yearly high today, the odds of us flipping unhealthy anytime soon are low. But it's something we have to keep an eye on....