Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Hold confirmed.

Expecting more upside this week. Holding longs. We are enjoying the great outdoors today with 60 degree temps. Hope u can do the same.

EOM archiving time...

Dec 30
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Jan 6
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Jan 10
Short #249.26
Jan 11
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Jan 17
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Jan 30
Jan 31

Monday, January 30, 2012

Buy if...

The system is buying today's weakness. If SPY closes 131.41 or lower, the system dumps the short position and goes 50% long TNA.

If we finish strong and manage a close above 131.42, hold the shorts for at least another day.

Friday, January 27, 2012

Hold confirmed.

You guessed it, another hold signal. So much for that pullback I was blabbing about earlier this week. While there was a minor one in SPY, you wouldn't know it by looking at TNA. I guess more patience is required. Have a good weekend all.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Possible buy... But a hold is expected.

If we get more weakness into the close we could get a buy signal. If SPY closes at 130.78 or lower, the system closes the short position and goes 50% long TNA. Otherwise, SPY 130.79 or higher, it remains short.

Such a nice surprise to see the market can actually go down. Who would've thought?!? (Oops, I'm jinxing it... )

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Hold signal.

I know this is not fun... But I'm holding my shorts. I still believe a big pullback is coming. We'll see.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Hold confirmed.

Things were looking good this morning, but the bulls dashed our hopes yet again. I'm not sure what it will take to make this market correct. Perhaps FOMC tomorrow??

Holding shorts.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Another hold signal...

Nothing much to say again today. My system remains short. A pullback is coming this week.

Friday, January 20, 2012

Hold confirmed.

Nothing new today. Holding shorts.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Short #2 confirmed.

4:01pm: The 2nd short signal was confirmed. My system and I are 100% short. :)

Today's signal depends on both the VIX and SPY.

If SPY closes above 131.13 and VIX closes above 19.84 we'll get a 2nd short signal. Currently, both of these conditions are being met, but we must watch them into the close. Too much late day strength will send the VIX below the critical level and could result in more upside tomorrow. If the conditions are not met, it will result in a hold signal.

Have a good evening!

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Short signal confirmed.

4:05pm: Short confirmed.
If SPY closes at 130.63 or higher, it is a strong short signal. I will sell longs and go 50% short TNA.

If SPY closes 130.46 to 130.62, we'll get a plain sell signal with no short.

120.45 or lower.... hold longs.

Good evening!

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Hold confirmed.

Obviously things were looking better for this long position earlier today, but the system sees no reason to sell at this point. Hold signal is confirmed. See ya tomorrow.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Buy confirmed.

5pm: The 2nd buy signal was confirmed. The position is now averaged in at 49.92, which is not very good considering the dip down to 48 we had this morning. Oh well, here's to a strong Tuesday. (Market is closed Monday.) Have a good weekend!


I expect to get another buy signal today, one in which I feel more comfortable following.

Today's number to watch is SPY 129.23, which is well above current levels. Anything above 129.23 will be a hold signal. At or below will result in a buy signal placing the system all in TNA.

BTW, is anyone else noticing problems with the comments section below my posts? It's messed up for me now. Problems started 2 days ago.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Buy if...

I'm getting a buy signal (the system is trying to buy strength here) if the following two conditions are met.

1) SPY closes above 129.00 (looking very likely)


2) TNA closes at 50.30 or higher (not quite a given yet)

Both conditions must be met or the system remains short. If met, the system closes the short position for a loss and opens a 50% long position in TNA. Best wishes!

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Hold confirmed.

No new signal today. System remains 100% short. All things considered, today was a pretty good day... for the bulls. However, with SPY and VIX both up there could be some downside in the near future.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Short #2

The short signal was confirmed. The system is 100% short, averaged in at TNA 48.13. It appears the 50/50 method is going to benefit the system this time, as it improved the cost average by 2.40%.

3:52pm: The system goes 100% short if SPY closes 129.06 or higher. Otherwise, it remains 50% short TNA.

Monday, January 9, 2012

Hold confirmed.

Either the market is preparing to blast off or tank. Flip a coin, I suppose. I remain 50% short.

Friday, January 6, 2012

Hold confirmed.

My system (and I) remain 50% short going into next week. Have a good weekend.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Hold signal.

A hold signal is confirmed unless SPY closes above 128.52 - which would generate a 2nd short signal and push the system 100% short TNA.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Hold confirmed.

Holding shorts overnight.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Strong short signal.

4:15pm: The strong short signal was confirmed. I forgot to mention I am shorting BGU (or buying BGZ) all this month when shorting. (Thanks jim for jogging my memory.) The system will still use TNA for stat calculations, but I don't like to bet against the January Effect as I have been burned in the past when doing so... Again, whichever ETF you decide to short is totally up to you. My system is calibrated to the S&P so as long as the stock/ETF correlates, there really is no wrong or right choice.

What a lousy finish that was... I don't like to see that much selling going into the close when I'm about to short. Anyway, the first trade of the year was successful. TNA was up nearly 5%, although once again the system will only get half credit. :-/

3:30pm: The numbers are in...

My system goes short if SPY closes at 127.26 or higher. Below that, if it finishes between SPY 126.96 to 127.25 it will sell longs only. Below 126.96, hold longs. It is a strong short signal already by definition, but the higher we close above 127.26 the better. I would also like to see some better performance out of TNA although this is not a requirement today.

No further updates needed. Have a good evening!

10:39am: While I am kicking myself for not following my system and going long Friday, at least I half listened and dumped my shorts on the close.

I'm getting a strong short signal today. As I demonstrated over the weekend, taking a 50% short position here would probably not be as profitable as a 100% short position, but I also said I'd give this money management strategy a few more months. So, if the short signal holds into the close the system will sell longs and initiate a 50% short position in TNA.

I'm turning off the computer now and will be back at 345pm ET to confirm the signal and place the trades. I'm off work today so I think I'll go workout and perhaps help put all the Christmas stuff away - at least doing something useful besides watching what appears to be a relatively boring day transpire. See ya back here in a few hours. Take care.