Monday, October 31, 2011

Cover signal confirmed.

It's very close, but the cover signal is going to win today. The other possibility was a hold signal. (No buy signal today.) As I said it's very, very close and I could easily see us continuing down into tomorrow.

Archiving OCT TRADES...

Sept 30
Oct 3
Hold - 1/2 Stopped
Oct 4
Oct 5
Oct 6
Oct 7
Oct 10
Oct 11
Oct 12
Oct 13
Oct 14
Oct 17
Oct 18
Oct 19
Oct 20
Oct 21
Oct 24
Oct 25
Oct 26
Oct 27
Oct 28
Oct 31

Friday, October 28, 2011

Short #2 confirmed.

4:30pm: System is 100% short averaged in at 52.03. Apparently, it's not worried about momentum generated by such a huge move on Thursday. I have my doubts, but I am heavily short now despite my worries. Most people are expecting more upside next week, self included, so I'm hoping most people are wrong or at least we get some type of pullback before we go to the moon. Time will tell. Have a drink and forget about the market for a few days. We've all earned it. Enjoy! :)

3:15pm: If SPY closes at or above 128.52, a 2nd short signal will be generated. This will push the system "all in" short.

Otherwise, we'll get a hold signal keeping us 50% short over the weekend. Could get a cover signal if SPY closes around 127.5 or lower. I don't see a buy signal happening today. Will update later...

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Short confirmed.

The short signal was confirmed, barely. Days like Thursday reveal a weakness with my system. By the time you figure out what the signal is, there may be just a few seconds left before the closing bell rings - hardly enough time to execute a trade. It doesn't happen often, but it happens. In this case the good news is that given the upward thrust we had, the closing prices will most likely be revisited even if we gap down on Friday. So, I will be placing a limit short order for TNA 52.37. (Or limit buy order for TZA 27.91) If it fills, great. If not, no damage done.

3:55pm: Holy cow, I had a nice discussion typed up but I just looked at the market and it's screwing me up. We need to close above SPY 128.56 to get a short signal. Otherwise, HOLD in cash.

Strong short signal.

FYI: Very strong short signal this morning.

When the market opened this morning, I witnessed the strongest short signal I had ever seen, ever. It was insane. As the market has weakened a bit (now 10:10am), so too has the signal. Still, if we stay near these levels all day, the short signal will be confirmed if SPY can manage a close above 126.81. See ya later!

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Possible short.

3:45pm: I didn't think it would happen, but it may after all... if SPY closes above 124.71, the system moves 50% short again - expecting a short term pullback. Below or equal to 124.71, then remain on sidelines with a hold.

2:29pm: A 95% chance of a hold signal today. I will update later, but it really looks like we'll need to see a late day blast in either direction to get anything other than a hold.

For example, SPY needs to close above 124.71 to get a short signal.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Cover confirmed.

10pm: Well my system has moved to the sidelines. It is expecting a bounce tomorrow and locked in some solid gains. Of course just because it expects a bounce doesn't mean it will happen, which is exactly why we didn't get a buy signal. The chances of a bounce simply were not high enough to produce the buy. If we continue to plummet Wednesday, it will go long for Thursday. Conversely, a decent size bounce Weds will probably give us another short signal. Should be interesting.

Looks like a cover signal. Key number today is tna 43.96. If we close below, we'll get a cover signal. At or above that value, hold short. Thx!

Monday, October 24, 2011

Sell longs and go short.

415pm: The short signal was confirmed (obviously). It was a strong signal so it should be a pretty low risk trade. See ya here tomorrow.

245pm: Short signal is confirmed if SPY closes at 124.81 or higher. Currently its well above, offering an attractive price. A close of 124.7-124.8 is a plain sell signal with no short. And anything below 124.7 is a hold signal. Have a good rest of the day!

At 1047am, I am getting an extremely strong SHORT signal for today. My system is about to melt down with this much red on the screen! :)

Friday, October 21, 2011

Hold confirmed.

Holding could be dangerous here but I enjoy living on the edge. :)

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Hold signal confirmed.

System will hold a partial long position into tomorrow.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Buy signal confirmed.

4:15pm: It was indeed, a strong buy signal.

3:46pm: Even though it seems the market wants to roll-over, I am getting another buy signal. The more the market sinks today, the stronger the buy signal. If we see a slight recovery over the last 10 minutes, it will be a weaker signal - but a buy signal nonetheless.

The system will move to 50% TNA with 50% cash reserves.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Taking profits...

The system is selling this rally. However, there is no short signal today...too much potential for continuation. (But also too much risk to hold longs.) I will not need to update again today. Basically, as long as SPY finishes over 121.70, the sell signal is confirmed. If we reverse downward and close below it, it will be a hold signal with more upside expected tomorrow in that case.

Monday, October 17, 2011

Buy signal confirmed.

I'll be closing my short position on the close and going 50% long. Looks like a strong buy signal.

Friday, October 14, 2011

Hold signal.

I will hang onto my 50% short position over the weekend. Apologies for not getting the signal out there in a timely fashion... I was away and lost track of time.

Anyway, what a run this has been! 150 SPX points in a week and a half. The Nasdaq has been even more impressive with a solid breakout today. Although, it is approaching its 200day MA - where it will fail on its first attempt.

Have a great weekend!

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Hold 50% short position.

Signal is confirmed. Still a few minutes til the close, but it appears to be another VIX down/VXX up day, which is more times than not a bearish sign.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Hold confirmed.

Not the most ideal start for this (healthy) short trade... let's give it a few days and see where we're at. Have a good evening.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Short if...

Short signal if SPY closes positive @ 119.59 or higher...

I was thinking we would get this signal yesterday, but with TNA up another 2% we'll be getting an even better price today.

Ready to initiate 50% short TNA position on close.

Monday, October 10, 2011

Healthy and Hold.

3:53pm: Back to healthy mode. A short signal was looking promising 30 mins ago, but this late day strength killed it. Looks like we'll go higher. Hold signal confirmed.

1pm: As long as we don't see a reversal this afternoon, today being green will flip the system back to healthy mode. This will probably give us yet another hold signal, although there is still a slight chance of a healthy short signal. Will update before the close...

10am: I'm getting a strong short signal. Just a heads up...

I will update later.

Friday, October 7, 2011

Hold confirmed.

System will remain sidelined over the weekend. Have a good one!

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Sell confirmed.

10pm: Longs have been closed and stats have been updated. I'm looking at 3 losing months in a row (so far) which I am not happy about. The recently implemented stop loss rules hurt me with this latest trade...half of my longs were stopped out a terrible price. Hate stop losses!

Fortunately there is plenty of time left this month to right the ship. One interesting thing to note is that a green SPY candle tomorrow will flip the system right back to healthy mode. At that point, it shouldn't be too difficult to get a buy signal sometime next week. I'm ok with that b/c the 200-day MA has to be tested eventually, right?

On the next buy signal, the stop loss would be set at SPX 1074.77. I have a feeling if we break that low, there will be no such bounce like we've seen this week. Bombs away to 1000.

2pm: Sell signal if SPY closes at 116.03 or higher. No short signal today. If SPY closes below target number, then continue to hold longs.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Another hold signal.

Nothing new today. Still holding a small long position.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Hold confirmed.

Hard to tell which way the market will go from here. Path of least resistance is down. I'm carrying a small long position, hoping to get a sell signal sometime this week.