Friday, July 29, 2011

Hold signal + Unhealthy + July Trades

With the dip below the 7/18 swing lows, the system flips to unhealthy mode today.  In a nutshell this means that buy signals will be harder to come by, and sell & short signals will come more frequently.

Either way today's signal is a "hold".  That will change only if something extraordinary happens this afternoon.

I'm not here to guess - but if I was... I would say Monday will be another red day followed by a multi-day rally beginning Tuesday.  Let's see if I'm right... Have a good weekend all.

Monthly archiving of signals...

Jun 24Buy
Jul 1Short85.43
Jul 5Hold

Jul 6Cover
Jul 7Short91.02
Jul 8Hold

Jul 11Hold

Jul 12Cover
Jul 13Hold

Jul 14Buy
Jul 15Hold

Jul 18Buy
Jul 19Hold

Jul 20Hold

Jul 21Hold

Jul 22Hold

Jul 25Hold

Jul 26Buy

Jul 27Hold

Jul 28Hold

Jul 29Hold

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Hold confirmed.

Well, we had a decent rally that failed, setting up what looks like an inverted hammer. Implications are supposedly bullish but we'll see. I'm getting a hold signal, so I'll continue to hold onto my long positions. Tomorrow could be another bad day unless we get some good news. See ya tomorrow!

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Hold confirmed.

A discouraging day to say the least. I will continue to hold my long positions, which may sound a bit foolish. And it probably is....

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Buy Signal #3 (Strong)

A relatively rare set-up is occurring today with the system giving a 3rd buy signal. While the system is already "all-in", admittedly I am not as I took some profits late last week. Holding 100% TNA over a weekend is a bit too much risk for me to stomach. I did buy some back yesterday on the open at 82.50. I will load up with more on the close today.

This is a strong buy signal, which by my definition simply means both healthy and unhealthy modes are sporting buy signals. Historical results associated with "strong buys" are impressive. I've posted the stats several times in the recent past...most recently on July 14.

As far as the system goes, it may as well be a hold signal. My system was all in at TNA 79.32 and profits have mostly evaporated since it neglected to dish up a sell signal last week.

Monday, July 25, 2011

Friday, July 22, 2011

Hold confirmed.

3:48pm: Hold signal confirmed. 100% long TNA.

12:50pm: There will be no short signal today, but we could get a sell signal if we close near the daily high. I am not expecting that, however. I think we'll pull back a bit off the daily high, in true range day fashion and finish with a doji ultimately leading to a hold signal. Check back later though b/c it's about a 50/50 chance.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Hold confirmed

3:45pm: Hold signal confirmed.

1:20pm: No chance of a sell signal anymore. Not that I can see. Holding long and strong!

12:10pm: Not such a huge move anymore, at least not for TNA. Opening the door for a possible sell signal...

10:39am: I doubt we'll see a sell signal higher we'll go?!? I love days like today - when we're on the right side of a huge move.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Hold confirmed

A relatively boring day. Consolidation before another move up? Perhaps... Still holding 100% long. Happy hump day!

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Hold confirmed.

3:52pm:  Hold confirmed. The system expects more upside...

1:59pm: Well, it took some guts to go "all in" yesterday afternoon but it is paying off nicely! For today, unless something screwy happens this afternoon we are looking at a solid "hold" signal.  I will update if anything changes. There is a slight chance of a sell signal so check back later...

Monday, July 18, 2011

Buy #2 confirmed.

System will be 100% long TNA, averaged in at 79.32.

Friday, July 15, 2011


Hold confirmed. Have a good weekend.

Thursday, July 14, 2011

Buy #1 confirmed.

3:48pm: Buy signal confirmed.  Initiating 50% long position in TNA.  50% remains in cash.

12:29pm: With a couple hours left to go, I'm getting a strong buy signal.  The last strong buy signal was generated June 24th.  Once again, here are the statistical results associated with strong buys. 

1)  40% chance of a 10% gain in 3-6 days.
2) 80% chance of a higher close within 3 days.
3) 95% chance of a higher close within 2 weeks.

These stats have not been updated to reflect June 24 results, so %'s should actually be a bit higher now.

I will update later with the official signal.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Hold confirmed.

4: 03pm: Missed a buy signal.  2 days in a row, missed by pennies....

3:54pm:  Buy if SPY closes at or below 131.80.

3:48pm: This afternoon selling has the system chewing on a possible buy signal.  Will update in a few mins...

12:57pm: No buy or short signals in sight today...  And with today being a big up day with no short signal, odds favor more upside in the days that follow.  I will remain parked in cash though.

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Cover confirmed

4:10pm: With the cover signal, the system moves to the sidelines.  Performance this month has been stellar - up nearly 12%.   The yearly % gain has just exceeded 43% with this latest short trade. 

3:41pm: Had some technical issues yesterday and was lucky to get the signal out.  Everything is running smoothly today and we have a buy signal if SPY finishes at or above 131.83.   Anything below and we have a cover signal.  So, either way the short position will be closed.  All that is uncertain right now is if a 50% long position will be opened.  Watch SPY.

Monday, July 11, 2011

Friday, July 8, 2011

Hold confirmed

3:47pm: Hold signal is confirmed. Holding 50% short position over the weekend. 

3:27pm: Another close one today!  It's either gonna be a hold or cover signal. No other options at this point.  Could come down to the last couple minutes, so be ready to buy to cover if you're following along.

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Short confirmed.

3:55pm: Short is confirmed.

Heads up - the system is trying to go short again.  At least we were able to sidestep the launch from the jobs report this morning.

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Cover confirmed.

4pm: The system moves to the sideline after taking about a 1% loss on the short position. There is too much uncertainty to be long or short right now. If I had to guess, I say we go higher from here though.

The short position will be closed if SPY finishes flat or higher today, even if it's only by 0.01.  If SPY finishes in the red, we'll maintain the 50% short position.  Right now it's too close to call, so we'll have to see what happens.  Yesterday and today should've been the best days for a quick pullback to occur.  Since it never really happened, I suspect we'll go higher this week.  The bears only hope is if SPY finishes down today.

Twitter feed...

With the addition of twitter to my site, you'll notice some changes.  The most obvious is the link to follow me on twitter. The other change is the feed right below it.  That will now be the location where my latest signal will be posted. This is to make life easier on me so I'm not having to update 2 different things right before the market closes... which is already crunch time.  I will still post commentary at some point during the day, but it may not always be before the close. 

Tuesday, July 5, 2011


3:53pm: Hold confirmed.  Twitter feed should be available sometime this week...

2:37pm:  FYI, looks like we'll get a hold signal today. I'll update later.

Sunday, July 3, 2011

Monthly wrap-up

June kicked off with a short signal on the first of the month, which I remember at the time just didn't feel like the right trade. One thing I have learned though is that the best trades usually are the ones that are the most uncomfortable.  It was followed the next day by a buy signal which actually felt good.  We know how that trade turned out.  About the only positive thing I can say about it was that half my money was locked up in cash as the market sank.  The market fell enough by Jun 6 to flip the status to unhealthy. On the next pop, the system fled to safety on Jun 14.  That didn't last long as another buy signal was generated the next day.  A few days later we were out with another decent profit.  A profitable short signal was generated on the 21st.  The market was beginning to show signs of life that week as it bottomed and a strong buy signal was generated on the 24th.  I gave it a 40% chance of a 10% gain in 3-6 days, and sure enough TNA went up 16% in 5 days.  Not bad! Of course, I only captured half of that since I was only 50% long.

For the month, June was up a modest 2.89%.  However, July is already up 8.08%(!) since we closed the long trade on the 1st.  I strive for 5% a month so we are off to a good start and making up nicely for a sub-par June.  For the year, we are up nearly 40%!  (+39.81% to be exact.)  I'm not sure how long the system can maintain this kind of exceptional performance, but I'm sure enjoying the ride.  Since we got a short signal, I'm guessing we'll see a small/quick pullback before the market heads higher.  It doesn't matter what I think though...I tend not to argue with something that is up 40% in 6 months. :)  Have a great 4th weekend. See ya back here on Tuesday.

Friday, July 1, 2011

50% Short (+ June Trades)

11pm: For those following my system (and paying attention :) longs should've been sold and a 50% short position should've been opened.   I'll try to make a short weekend post along with updating system stats and such. Market is closed Monday so I'll see ya here Tuesday! 

3pm update: A $VIX close of 15.70 or higher generates a SHORT signal.  Otherwise, a hold signal is confirmed.   We're driving back home today so this is my last update until the weekend.  Watch the VIX.  Have a good one.

1:56pm: Another hold signal is on tap today.  This has been a great run.  I suppose my only gripe would be that I am 50% cash.

I'll look into getting a twitter account which would allow me to send out my signals live to anyone interested.  Thanks for the suggestion.

 If we see significant weakness before the close today, we could flip to a sell signal.  If we don't see weakness, no need to check back here... it will be a hold signal.

For archiving purposes...

May 31Short 88.90
Jun 1Buy 80.52
Jun 2Hold
Jun 3Hold
Jun 6Hold
Jun 7Hold
Jun 8Hold
Jun 9Hold
Jun 10Hold
Jun 13Hold
Jun 14Sell 72.43
Jun 15Buy 68.65
Jun 16Hold
Jun 17Hold
Jun 20Sell 71.06
Jun 21Short 75.75
Jun 22Hold
Jun 23Hold
Jun 24Buy 73.55
Jun 27Hold
Jun 28Hold
Jun 29Hold
Jun 30Hold