Monday, January 31, 2011


4 pm:  The system produced a hold signal and will remain on the sidelines.

Earlier post...
Well, I didn't have a chance to make a post this past weekend... I was going to post some stats on how a big spike in the VIX lead to strength in the following sessions.  I didn't expect it this soon, however.

Friday, January 28, 2011


11pm:  I'm expecting a buy signal to come on Monday or Tuesday.  I'll explain with a post this weekend.  In a nutshell, there is a very profitable scenario shaping up on the long side.

4pm:  My system generated a "hold" signal and will remain out of the market until the next buy or short signal.

Earlier post:
Glad to have side-stepped the big loss today, but wish the system wouldn't have missed the short signal.  Oh well...

I'm getting a buy signal today, but only if SPY closes above the 18 day SMA.  That will be the key level to watch today, which is 128.34.  If the market closes below the 18 SMA, we will get a "hold" signal and will remain in 100% cash.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Sell signal #2

4pm: System produced another sell signal and remains in cash.

1:55 update:  The buy signal looks to be history, and now I'm on alert for a potential short signal.  Will update later.

Earlier post: 

Some things to watch... Weakness that takes the S&P below 1296 could result in a buy signal.  If there is too much weakness, however (say below 1292) no signal will be generated.  Anything higher than 1296 and we get a hold signal.  I will update near the close.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Sell confirmed

Pre-close update: The long trade has been closed.  No new short position will be opened.

Earlier post: The system is generating a sell signal (although not a short signal).  The long position will be closed today if the signal persists.  In fact, with today being an FOMC day, statisitics show it is better to sell around 3pm, as there is usually weakness in the last hour.   If the sell signal holds into 3pm, I'll close at that time rather than the usual 4pm.

There will be no short position initiated.  There is too much strength to go short, but too much risk to remain long.  After today, the system will remain out of the market until the next long or short signal, assuming of course the sell signal holds into 3pm.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Buy signal - confirmed

4pm: 2nd buy signal is confirmed.  Long position is increased.

10:44am ET: The system is giving a 2nd buy signal, in which case the long position will be doubled.

Monday, January 24, 2011


I'm getting another hold signal for today.  It's a weak hold (almost a sell) but still valid as far as the system goes.

Friday, January 21, 2011


Ok, I step away for a few hours and the VIX explodes.  That's interesting.  It went from being down 8% when I left to closing up over 2%.  Additionally, SPX was also up, which means there is higher probability for more downside on Monday. 

Small caps performance this week was abysmal.  Looking back the past several years, when TNA performed this poorly relative to BGU for the week, it was usually a great time to buy TNA.   Hopefully that holds true going into next week. 

Time will tell.  Have a good weekend all. 

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Hold Long

4:08pm:  A hold signal was indeed generated.  Another buy signal was missed by less than 1 SPX point.   Hind sight reveals the system would've been better off in something besides small caps, but you have to take the good with the bad. 

Previous update:  Had a feeling today would be another stinker, but that's the way it goes.   Would like to see some strong buying kick in sooner than later, otherwise this could be a nasty correction.   The system will produce a 2nd consecutive buy signal should we have either late day weakness that takes the SPX down back near 1270 or strength that lifts the index back above 1280.  A 2nd buy signal for my system means to double down on the long position.  Any value between 1270-80 will likely result in a hold signal.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

4pm: Buy signal confirmed.


Not sure if it will remain into the close, but odds are pretty good.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011


The system remains out of the market until the next buy or short signal is produced.

Friday, January 14, 2011

Sell signal confirmed. No short.

System generated a sell signal, but not a short signal. This is a new feature for 2011. Not all sell signals are created equal. In this case, the long position was closed, but a short position not opened. The system is out of the market until the next signal.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Getting a buy signal.

6:00pm: The buy signal held into the close. Seems kinda risky to be buying when the market is this extended but the trend is on your side. I'll be glad when the market gets back to normal and actually goes up and down.
Looks like a buy signal is on tap for the close.  However, if we see anymore weakness and the S&P finishes below 1280, the signal will flip back to holding on to shorts for another day.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Hold Shorts

A hold signal was generated today.  Somewhat surprisingly, another short signal was not issued, which is slightly concerning... the rally may have some more legs.  Time will tell. 

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Short signal issued.

Assuming the market doesn't do anything crazy this afternoon, I'm getting a short signal.   We'll see if it holds into the close.

2:35pm: The afternoon sell-off killed the sell signal.  It's a hold now.  My system is designed to sell into strength while in an uptrending market.  It will not sell into weakness as it assumes weakness leads to higher prices in the future (again, only in an uptrending market).

3:55p:  Coming down to the wire, the system keeps flipping between hold and short... Probably won't know until just before the close.  Will update later.

4:00p:  System flipped back to a "short" 15 seconds before the close.  So, it's official.

Monday, January 10, 2011

Jan 10 - Hold

A buy signal was generated this morning, but it transformed into a "hold" as the small caps regained their footing.  Since the previous trade was a "buy" on Jan 6, there is no change.

Friday, January 7, 2011

Buy - Jan 6

A buy signal was generated on the close yesterday. 

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Sell signal...

Had the buy signal held into the close yestereday, the system today would be selling.  On the other hand, since the system is still short, it will remain that way.  I suspect there is some downside coming in the short term.  Probably not much, but a little...

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Could be a "buy" ....

12:23pm: The previous short signal is paying off after a rather nasty day for bears yesterday.  The system is currently showing a "hold" signal on those shorts, but depending how the afternoon goes, a "buy" could be in the offing.  Will update later...

3:58pm: Last second switch from a "buy" to a "hold".    Closing signal = Hold shorts...